2026 is not shaping up to be a particular good year for the smartphone, with estimates that shipments could fall this year. We’ve seen this predicted by research firms like IDC and Counterpoint. Now, those claims are being backed up by Omdia, who have offered similar predictions of their own.
Smartphone shipments to fall by 7% in 2026
According to the latest figures by Omdia, the company is predicting that smartphone shipments could fall by as much as 7% in 2026. And the reason? If you guessed memory constraints, you would be right on the money.
Based on Omdia’s research, memory now accounts for a “significantly larger” share of a smartphone’s cost. This means that as memory shortages take place, prices will go up, and companies might be less inclined to buy more components and build more phones. It is possible that companies could still build more devices, but then those costs could be passed onto the customers.
This drop of 7% is a sharp contrast to the previous years, where shipments grew by 7% and 2% in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Omdia also claims that geopolitical pressures could contribute to the decline. “At the same time, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could amplify macroeconomic volatility including higher energy prices, freight costs, and foreign-exchange instability, further weakening consumer upgrades in price-sensitive markets.”
In the meantime, we’re hearing reports that companies like Apple are expected to absorb the price. The company is hoping that by not increasing its prices, it will get more customers to buy its phones. It makes sense. Apple makes a lot of money from services and app commissions. Locking customers into its ecosystem will be more financially advantageous in the long run, versus chasing short-term profit.
The memory crisis
In case you haven’t been following the news, there’s a memory shortage affecting the global markets. This is due to the rise of AI. As more people want more AI, companies are forced to build new and larger data centers. These data centers need a lot of servers, and these servers also need a lot of RAM.
So much so that memory makers are shifting their priorities. Now, these companies are focusing on product HBM designed for data centers. This doesn’t mean they will no longer produce consumer-facing memory, but it will be on a reduced scale. As a result, there will be less memory to go around, and as the law of supply and demand dictates, when demand exceeds supply, expect prices to go up.
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