Jerome Powell’s term as central bank chair ends in May.
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It’s the fourth Fed day of the year — and it’s set to be Jerome Powell’s swan song.
The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its April interest rate decision at 2 p.m. ET. Powell’s term ends on May 15, making this meeting his last, pending the confirmation of Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to be the next Fed chair. The meeting also comes amid a new development in the Department of Justice probe into the Fed’s construction efforts on its DC buildings, a continued stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz, and ongoing inflation woes.
Business Insider will cover the news all day, including insights from economists, market analysts, and central bank leaders. Check back here for updates.
A near-guaranteed hold
As of Wednesday morning, CME FedWatch — which estimates probabilities of the Fed’s choices based on market moves — is predicting a 100% chance of a rate hold. The FOMC aims to balance both sides of its dual mandate, fostering stable prices and maximum employment. Lowering rates could help thaw a frozen job market, but it carries the risk of rising inflation. It’s likely the Fed will take a moderately restrictive stance, keeping rates steady alongside oil shocks from the Iran war.
The end of an era (most likely)
After holding the post since 2018, Wednesday is set to be Powell’s last meeting as central bank chair. His term is officially up on May 15, and Trump nominee Warsh is likely to be greenlit by the Senate as successor. The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to meet this morning to vote on whether or not to advance his confirmation to the full Senate.
It’s rare for a chair to remain on the Federal Open Market Committee after their tenure, but Powell has hinted that he may hold on to his governor seat: “I will make that decision based on what I think is best for the institution and for the people we serve,” he said last month. Powell is eligible to vote on the committee until 2028, if he were to stay.
