Toyota Vs. Subaru At 250,000 Miles: It’s Not Even Close

Throw enough money at it, and practically any car can last for hundreds of thousands of miles. But it turns out that some brands have a much higher chance of doing so than others. A new study by iSeeCars analyzed 395 million vehicles to find out which car brands have the best chance of reaching 250,000 miles. Unsurprisingly, Japanese brands dominated the study, but the gap between two of them—Toyota and Subaru—was unexpectedly large.

Related: The World’s Highest-Mileage Cars Share One Reliability Secret

Toyota Is The Longest-Lasting Car Brand

Any car that can reach 250,000 miles has achieved something rare, especially if it has done so without major maintenance or repairs. At that stage, most cars will be facing major transmission and engine wear, worn axles, bad shocks, and many other worn or failing parts.

In the study, Toyota was the top-ranked brand, with a 19.7% chance of its vehicles reaching 250,000 miles or beyond. That’s more than three times the industry average (a 5.4% chance). Below is a look at the top 10 brands in the study, with the four top spots all being Japanese automakers.

What you may notice is that Subaru is one of the only Japanese brands missing from the top 10. Despite a reasonable reliability reputation and a range of adventure-focused vehicles, Subaru only landed at 14th. Its vehicles have only a 2.8% chance of lasting until 250,000 miles, far behind Toyota.

In fairness, Toyota does have a wide range of tough, body-on-frame SUVs and trucks, including the Tacoma, Tundra, and 4Runner. These rugged vehicles are known to stay on the road for ages. Still, Subaru is well off the pace of other Japanese brands.

At the other end of the spectrum, Fiat, Jaguar, Mini, and Maserati were ranked at the very bottom.

Related: 5 Simple Habits Can Help Your Car Last For Decades

How The Study Works

The iSeeCars team analyzed data for over 395 million cars, with their odometer readings calculated at each yearly age. A proprietary model based on these average mileage was developed, which produced an estimation of the probability that each car would survive to a certain point. The study excludes heavy-duty vans and other models with insufficient data. 

“The odds of reaching the 250,000-mile milestone for each specific model and generation were calculated and then averaged across each brand’s entire lineup, weighing the results by how common each model is on the road,” said iSeeCars.

What’s also noticeable is how far ahead the top 4 Japanese brands are compared to the rest of the industry.

“Reaching 250,000 miles is an exceptionally high bar for any vehicle, which makes the distinction among the four highest-ranked brands meaningful,” said iSeeCars Executive Analyst, Karl Brauer. “Toyota, Lexus, Honda and Acura don’t just lead the list, they substantially outperform the average vehicle’s chances of reaching that high-mileage threshold.”

What It Means

Recent studies show that many Americans are keeping their cars longer than planned, as a new car is simply out of reach financially. While nobody wants to keep a car beyond 200,000 miles, some drivers don’t have a choice, so it helps to choose brands with a reputation for durability at high mileage.

Interestingly, longevity doesn’t necessarily correlate with reliability ratings. For instance, Ram is one of the longest-lasting brands, but it ranks almost dead last in predicted reliability scoring from Consumer Reports. A Ram pickup may have solid bones, but it will likely require much more intensive maintenance than an equivalent Toyota, which Consumer Reports ranks as number 1. In the same study, Subaru ranked second for reliability, behind only Toyota.

For anyone considering buying a high-mileage car, you can minimize risk by searching for brands that rank highly across multiple studies. Even that is no replacement for a vehicle that lacks a comprehensive service history.

Related: Subaru Vs. Toyota Reliability: The Gap Is Smaller Than You Think