Prediction markets let users bet on everything from sporting events to natural disasters and the outcomes of war. But they also set odds on layoffs and staff reductions at some of the largest companies, raising a question: If the market isn’t bullish on your company’s head count numbers for next quarter, should you start looking for a new job?
On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, layoff figures for the tech sector have garnered significant action.
On Kalshi, “More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?” has more than $31 million worth of wagers already placed, with the vast majority of money betting yes. The market is far more split on “More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?” with odds close to 50-50, offering bankers and lawyers less certainty than those in tech.
Given the high trading volume and the strong certainty around the Kalshi market on tech layoffs, the market is a pretty trustworthy prediction, according to Asa Palley, an associate professor of business administration at the University of Virginia Darden School of Business, who researches quantitative modeling and decision analysis.
Overall, public opinion of the economy is poor; the Gallup Economic Confidence Index reports that many Americans are pessimistic about the job market and the stability of the economy. Bets on layoffs may be a reflection of this sentiment.
Palley explained that prediction markets can at times have an edge over industry experts and professional forecasters because of the granularity and number of questions they pose.
Prediction market platforms let users bet on specific questions, like “Will AI be the #1 reason for job cuts in August?” or “Will Tesla lay off 3,000 employees before October 1, 2026?”
In addition, the markets are always reacting to new information. “It’s that real-time nature of a prediction market that makes it so useful,” Palley says.
Palley explained that when you look at the accuracy of prediction models across many different questions, the markets tend to be well calibrated. “It’s not exact, but the probabilities tend to be aligned with sort of the empirical subsequent reality,” he says.
Head counts reported by most major corporations are also open to speculation. Earlier this year, more than $600,000 was bet on Meta’s first-quarter head count; now, the markets isn’t bullish on that count being above 74,000 by the end of the year.
“I have no idea what to think about if I were an employee at Meta, for example, and I was seeing a forecast that head count might go down,” says Palley.
