Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is about to step into a political minefield as the Senate takes up a college sports bill as soon as next week — with perhaps as many reasons for his caucus to oppose it as support it.
Senators return to Washington Monday to a three-week window for legislating before they depart until November — and internal splits on both sides of the aisle are threatening passage of legislation to impose new federal rules on an industry worth tens of billions of dollars.
Schumer must decide if he wants to steer his members toward helping Republicans reach the 60-vote threshold on what could be the sweepiest bill the chamber passes before the midterms.
Backing it would mean supporting top Commerce Democrat Maria Cantwell’s efforts in crafting the bipartisan legislation that has taken months of painstaking negotiations with her counterpart, Chair Ted Cruz. But there are also plenty of downsides to promoting the bill — which has President Donald Trump’s endorsement.
One Democratic Senate aide with knowledge of the negotiations believes there’s enough opposition within the party to tank the measure on the floor as a coalition of labor rights groups and the Congressional Black Caucus warn the bill is exploitative.
“A good number of Democratic offices aren’t eager to tick off the AFL-CIO and NAACP, screw over college athletes and deliver Trump and Senate Republicans a major political win weeks before midterms,” another Democratic Senate aide with knowledge of the negotiations said.
“Bad policy. Terrible politics,” the aide added.
An aide for Schumer Tuesday did not say whether he supports the legislation. The spokesperson said Schumer “knows Congress should act to bring clarity and certainty” to the issues addressed in the measure, and that he’s “continuing to talk to members as the bill moves toward the floor.”
But continued pushback from Democratic members like Sen. Chris Murphy and the CBC — plus several labor, civil rights and athletes organizations — have thrown into question Democrats’ support.
Murphy, who has objected to the bill’s silence on college athletes’ employee status, has led the charge against the bill, refuting several posts from Cruz on social media this week.
Still, a lobbyist working on the bill, granted anonymity to discuss the dynamics, said they “could see Schumer letting [defectors] go their own way.”
“I also suspect that [Dems’] own tallies are probably showing that they can afford votes like that,” the lobbyist said of Schumer.
Meanwhile, Republicans are still working through their own divide on the bill: concerns over whether the legislation would pre-empt states’ authority to block trans athletes from competing on women’s sports teams.
Trump last month encouraged Republicans not to stand in the way of the measure over the issue after senators like Josh Hawley and Tommy Tuberville expressed hesitation.
But even if the bill were to eke by in the Senate, a hefty amount of opposition in both parties is bound to create an uphill battle in the House, where Majority Leader Steve Scalise has been less than enthusiastic about the package.
What else we’re watching:
— GOP HOPES DALLAS ENERGIZES TRUMP FANS: Republicans are hoping the Trump-centric midterm convention kicking off in Dallas Wednesday reminds their base why they fell in love with the president in the first place. The next 48 hours are geared in part toward turning out low-propensity voters who are loyal to Trump but tend to skip midterm elections. If they turn out, it won’t be because these voters like a particular congressman but because of their affinity for the president.
— COLLINS DINGS WHITE HOUSE ON TARIFFS: Sen. Susan Collins says the White House doesn’t understand how its trade war with Canada is affecting Maine. The border-state senator facing a tough re-election bid told POLITICO she has spoken with Vice President JD Vance and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer about the escalating tariffs between the two countries and encouraged them to re-open negotiations. Collins late Tuesday applauded the Trump administration’s tariff exemptions on road salt and cement, stating they were “two products crucial to Maine that would be severely affected.”
Jacob Wendler, Alex Gangitano, Jessica Piper and Megan Messerly contributed to this report.
