Nonpartisan election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia is rating the gubernatorial races in Arizona and Michigan as initial toss-ups, according to its analysis released Thursday.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik noted in the analysis that Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) could potentially face a strong Republican challenger this cycle after she narrowly defeated Republican candidate Kari Lake in 2022.
Kondik noted President Trump’s performance in Arizona in November coupled with intraparty divisions that have boiled over in public within the Arizona Democratic Party could create a challenging path to reelection.
At the same time, Kondik noted Hobbs has benefited from the fact that she avoided a primary challenger of her own this cycle, and she could potentially be matched up against a weaker Republican opponent again.
“Donald Trump has endorsed both wealthy businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson — who quite possibly would have beaten Hobbs had she not lost the 2022 primary to Lake — as well as right-wing [Arizona] Rep. Andy Biggs … a more recent entrant who would be the more enticing opponent for Hobbs,” Kondik noted.
Kondik also said Michigan’s governor’s race is also starting off as a toss-up, noting the entrance of an independent candidate in the race — Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is a Democrat but is running as an independent — as Democrats look to hold control of the governor’s mansion.
The race has attracted a crowded field on both sides; several notable names running include Rep. John James (R-Mich.) and Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R) on the GOP side, while Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II (D) and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) on the Democratic side.
“A Democrat has not succeeded another Democrat as Michigan governor since 1960, although these sorts of historical streaks are made to be broken—we once noted how Pennsylvania had a longstanding trend of alternating between eight years of one party followed by eight years of another,” Kondik wrote.
“That was true until it wasn’t: Democrats have now won three straight elections there and Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is favored to win a fourth,” he added.
Notably, both states are battleground states Trump won in November, and they’ll offer tests next year of whether Democrats can improve their standing with voters they lost in 2024.
