Election after election, Democratic strategist James Carville’s maxim, “It’s the economy, stupid!” has held true. But in coming political campaigns, candidates will encounter an especially virulent strain of economic anxiety—driven by artificial intelligence—that is proliferating among lower-wage, working Americans.
AI’s advances are directly intersecting with Americans’ economic security. Candidates across parties, states, and offices will have to adapt to this new reality, quickly.
New data show why. As AI reshapes the labor market and impacts individual economic prospects, these voters view it in increasingly dire terms. Merit America, the workforce development nonprofit that we co-lead, recently commissioned a national survey of more than 3,000 low-income Americans. The goal was to gauge their feelings about economic mobility, affordability, and AI.
AI IS CREATING JOB CONCERNS
The upshot? Lower-wage Americans—those earning under $50,000 per year—hold a dim view of the rapid technological and economic change reshaping society. These voters not only feel unprepared, they feel that preparation is beyond their reach. And they do not believe that government or tech leaders are looking out for their interests.
Seventy percent say they are not on track to achieve the American Dream, and 84% report delaying major milestones like buying a home or starting a family. A majority, 56%, believe they will have to change careers because of AI. But two-thirds also believe that higher education—the traditional path to a more stable career—fails to offer a good return on investment.
If they had the power to do so, 70% say they would prefer to halt the development of any AI tools with the potential to eliminate jobs.
HERE WE ARE
Yet AI is here, regardless of many voters’ desire to stop it. So, what are the solutions? They lie in flexible, affordable, results-driven training that lower-wage earners can complete while they continue to work. The vast majority of lower-wage workers (76%) say that this type of training would make them more confident and better prepared in an AI-driven world.
Workers are open to the career paths that training might prepare them for. While entry-level, white-collar jobs have been critical stepping stones to the middle class, AI is set to eliminate many of them. As a result, interest in traditionally blue-collar jobs, including skilled trades and technical roles, is growing, with the majority expressing interest in those career paths.
Lower-wage Americans view these careers as desirable for two reasons: They believe that society respects skilled trades and technical jobs, and they are interested in the steady salaries these careers typically command.
OPEN TO RESKILLING
This openness to reskilling for different or emerging roles underscores the political importance of good jobs that pay a decent wage. Policy approaches like universal basic income and an expanded social safety net don’t speak to that desire. Indeed, 81% of our sample would still prefer to work even if a guaranteed government income would allow them to live comfortably.
So why aren’t working Americans racing to develop new skills? The largest barrier is affordability. In our poll, while 86% say they would participate in free training, the majority cite cost of living as the largest factor preventing them from obtaining it.
In other words, today’s affordability crisis—the rising cost of housing, groceries, and more—isn’t just hurting lower-wage Americans’ pocketbooks. It’s precluding urgently needed investments in their own preparedness.
Artificial intelligence will wipe out some existing jobs. It will also create some new ones. As a country, we need to ensure that affordability does not prevent Americans from reskilling for the jobs that will exist—jobs in healthcare, cybersecurity, advanced manufacturing, and more. If we fail, the result will not be just frustration, but a fundamental breach of a social contract that offers a middle-class life in exchange for hard work.
WHAT CAMPAIGNS CAN DO
Political campaigns are about building trust and credibility among voters, about finding the nexus between a candidate’s priorities and the electorate’s. In the coming campaigns, it will not be enough for candidates to talk about slowing price hikes or strengthening the safety net.
To win the votes of working Americans, candidates will have to acknowledge that the economy has fundamentally changed, and that more change is coming. They will have to offer serious ideas for providing what these voters want: affordable and preferably free training with a path to a higher-paying job. And they will have to convince millions of increasingly skeptical voters that the American Dream can be more than an illusion in an AI-driven economy.
Connor Diemand-Yauman and Rebecca Taber Staehelin are the cofounders and co-CEOs of Merit America.
