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Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices—as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index—will rise +1.2% between August 2025 and August 2026.
Heading into 2025, Zillow’s 12-month forecast for U.S. home prices was +2.6%. However, many housing markets across the country softened faster than expected, prompting Zillow to issue several downward revisions. By April 2025, Zillow had cut its 12-month national home price outlook to -1.7%.
However, in recent months, Zillow has stopped issuing downward revisions. In August, it revised its 12-month outlook to +0.4%. In September, the forecast increased to +1.2%, and now Zillow has upgraded its 12-month national home price forecast to +1.9%.
While Zillow’s national home price forecast is no longer negative—it isn’t exactly bullish either.
Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow expects the biggest home price increase between September 2025 and September 2026 to occur in these 15 metros:
- Atlantic City, NJ → +5.4%
- Rockford, IL → +5.1%
- Concord, NH → %5.1%
- Knoxville, TN → +5.0%
- Saginaw, MI → +4.9%
- Fayetteville, AR → +4.8%
- Hilton Head Island, SC → +4.8%
- Torrington, CT → +4.8%
- Kingston, NY → +4.8%
- Hartford, CT → +4.5%
- New Haven, CT → +4.5%
- Vineland, NJ → +4.5%
- Jacksonville, NC → +4.4%
- Morristown, TN → +4.4%
- Manchester, NH → +4.3%
Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow expects the biggest home price decline between September 2025 and September 2026 to occur in these 15 metros:
- Houma, LA → -7.4%
- Lake Charles, LA → -6.9%
- Lafayette, LA → -4.3%
- New Orleans, LA → -4.0%
- Shreveport, LA → -3.8%
- Beaumont, TX → -3.7%
- Alexandria, LA → -3.4%
- Odessa, TX → -3.3%
- Corpus Christi, TX → -2.4%
- Monroe, LA → -2.1%
- San Francisco, CA → -2.0%
- Chico, CA → -2.0%
- Punta Gorda, FL → -1.9%
- Austin, TX → -1.8%
- Santa Rosa, CA → -1.8%
U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, are currently up +0.01% year over year. If Zillow’s latest 12-month outlook (+1.9%) comes to fruition, it would represent a small acceleration nationally.
Below is what the current year-over-year rate of home price growth looks like for single-family and condo home prices. The Sun Belt, in particular Southwest Florida, is currently the epicenter of housing market weakness right now.
“A year ago, 6 of the nation’s 50 largest metros were buyers markets; this September, buyers have the edge in 15 metros. Zillow’s market heat index shows the strongest buyer’s markets are Miami, New Orleans, Austin, Jacksonville and Indianapolis. That’s due, in large part, to a surge of new construction in many of those areas in recent years. The hottest markets for sellers are in the Northeast and Bay Area: Buffalo, Hartford, San Jose, San Francisco and New York—places where builders face some of the most stringent land use restrictions,” wrote Kara Ng, a senior economist at Zillow, in a report published on Monday.
