While Texas survived another scorching summer, Attorney General Ken Paxton’s double-digit lead in the U.S. Senate primary evaporated into a statistical tie with incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R).
With a torrent of self-inflicted, election-defining scandals about his personal and financial affairs, Paxton’s senatorial bid now resembles an ice sculpture: impressive at first, but melting away until only a puddle remains. That’s why he’s the Democrats’ favorite Republican — the weakened, injured opponent they can use to take back power in the midterms.
Were it just one scandal, even a big one, it probably wouldn’t matter in Texas. But Paxton’s decades-long barrage of bad behavior makes him a dream opponent for Democrats. His mortgage fraud allegations are just the latest crack. Before that, Paxton had been under a decade-long felony indictment that required him to agree to restitution payments and complete community service.
Then came the multimillion-dollar taxpayer-funded whistleblower judgment.
A 2023 impeachment trial on bribery and abuse of office followed, stemming from his first known affair.
This summer, his college sweetheart filed for divorce on biblical grounds, which most agree means he cheated. Again.
After that, Paxton suffered courtroom defeats on immigration, DEI, even a Ten Commandments law.
And finally came reports that he outsourced lawsuits to outside firms, which billed tens of thousands of dollars a day for simple legal work that his office should have handled.
Drip, drip, drip.
Democrats salivate at the idea of his candidacy. A UT Tyler poll released this week shows former Rep. Colin Allred (D) and state Rep. James Talarico (D) in a statistical tie with Paxton, whereas Cornyn enjoys a sizable lead in the hypothetical matchups. That’s why Democrats are lining up to run against Paxton — and for other marginal seats he could drag down.
Paxton’s ineffective record as attorney general makes him all the more appealing to the left. He loses case after case in federal courts, where judges block his immigration enforcement efforts and thwart his attempted crackdowns against DEI and ESG. Even the all-Republican Texas Supreme Court, which is elected, blocks him. In the biggest constitutional fight of 2025, Paxton refused to return from his European vacation and forced Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and the legislature to act without their elected attorney to try to bring quorum-busting Democrats back to Texas.
Paxton refuses to lead. Instead, he waits for actual conservatives to figure out how to win, and swoops in to take credit and to make appearances on Newsmax and Fox News.
That’s not all. Paxton barely scraped by an unknown Democrat in 2018 with a 3.6-point margin, one of the smallest margins any statewide Texas Republican has seen since 1998. And he underperformed Abbott in 2022. Paxton leading the Republican ticket endangers more than just the one Senate seat; it weakens every Republican running downballot.
If Paxton wins the Republican primary in March, it isn’t just Texas Republicans who will pay. National Republicans will spend hundreds of millions of dollars shoring up the seat. That would be money that should be defending the House and flipping vulnerable Democrat-held Senate seats. Instead, Republicans face expensive uncertainty.
Some in the activist class wave off these risks, saying things like: “Democrats never win statewide, so we can nominate whoever we want.” But candidate quality matters. Every election Paxton survives leaves Republicans weaker than before.
Ken Paxton isn’t just a lecherous, self-serving politician. He’s ineffective in his current job and the biggest vulnerability to Republicans in the 2026 cycle. Democrats want him on the ballot because he will cost Republicans the Senate. No wonder he’s their favorite Republican.
Garrett W. Fulce is a Republican political strategist and commentator based in Texas. A veteran of multiple statewide campaigns, he hosts Seeing Red, a Texas politics podcast.
