Why flight delays could persist even if a deal to reopen the government is reached

• Hundreds of thousands of travelers have seen their flights disrupted due to the US government shutdown.
• Industry groups say schedules and capacity cannot bounce back immediately after a deal is reached to reopen.
• Cancellation rates peaked on Saturday, and the residual impact could take several days to unwind.

America’s travel nightmare isn’t over yet.

Even as US lawmakers negotiate a reopening of the Federal government, the effects of the shutdown could take a while longer to return to normal.

“This is not a rubber band, so it’s not going to snap back,” Aviation strategist Henry Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group, told Business Insider.

He estimated it could take seven to 14 days for flight schedules to return to normal after the government reopens, and expects the government and airlines to want to minimize disruptions to the Thanksgiving travel period.

One key complication affecting flights during this government shutdown compared to the last one in 2019 is that airlines are facing new restrictions from the Federal Aviation Administration on the number of routes they’re allowed to fly.

The FAA instructed airlines to begin canceling flights last Friday because of the strain on air traffic controllers caused by the government shutdown, which resulted in many controllers working without pay.

“In a way, it was easier for the airlines to restore operations following that shutdown,” Harteveldt said. “That’s why it’s going to take a little bit more time for airlines to return to normal this time.”

The Senate voted on Monday to reopen the government, and the bill will go to the House of Representatives next. If the measure passes this week, airlines would still have a significant backlog to work through.

Even under normal circumstances, NerdWallet’s travel rewards expert, Sally French, told Business Insider that one canceled flight can disrupt others, leaving pilots, flight attendants, and planes far from their typically scheduled routes.

“People shouldn’t just automatically assume if they have a flight this weekend, that everything is going to be exactly perfect,” she said. “There’s still going to be kind of the snowball effect.”

Flight cancellations spiked over the weekend

Airlines for America, an industry group that includes the largest carriers like American, Delta, and United, said in a report that the shutdown has affected the travel of more than 5.2 million passengers from October 1 to November 9.

“Airlines’ reduced flight schedules cannot immediately bounce back to full capacity right after the government reopens,” the group said in a statement on Monday. “There will be residual effects for days.”

American Airlines COO David Seymour said in an internal memo Monday that about 250,000 of the carrier’s customers were affected by the cancellations and delays over the past weekend.

“This is simply unacceptable, and everyone deserves better,” Seymore said.

Data from aviation analytics company Cirium shows cancellations for US departure flights peaked over the weekend on Sunday, with 10.2% of flights canceled, while the share of flights leaving on time fell to 62% that day. Data from OAG aviation shows that on-time rates for top-performing airports typically range between 75% to 87%.

As of Tuesday morning, the data showed the rates of planned cancellations were showing signs of improvement. Cirium also said mid-week travel days are generally slower, which could help airlines play catch-up.

At New York’s JFK airport at midday on Tuesday, Business Insider saw growing lines at security and four cancellations out of 24 scheduled Delta flights.

Although TSA agents appeared busier than usual, passengers were moving mostly smoothly through Terminal 4.

The FAA said travelers should check fly.faa.gov for real-time updates about staffing, weather, and other information, and to check with their airlines before heading to the airport.

NerdWallet’s French compared the disruption to the seasonal delays that cause knock-on effects to travel in Dallas due to blizzards in Boston or thunderstorms in Atlanta.

“This could be a really challenging Thanksgiving travel season, and Thanksgiving is almost always a challenging time to fly,” she said.