Growth in the U.S. economy will recover in mid-2026 and reach 2% by the fourth quarter of 2026, a faster pace of recovery than previously projected, UCLA Anderson School of Management said in its latest quarterly forecast. The California recovery will begin later, getting underway late next year and accelerating in 2027.
The UCLA Anderson Forecast noted that throughout the past summer, “the U.S. economy endured inflection points that included a decline in payroll employment in June, a rising trajectory for inflation and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s announcement of a change in monetary policy.” The so-called “Powell Pivot” shifted the Fed’s focus to a stronger emphasis on its employment mandate relative to its inflation mandate
“For the California economy to grow faster than the U.S. economy, as it is accustomed to do, durable goods manufacturing — including aerospace and technology-laden sectors — will have to rebound strongly,” according to the forecast.
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