S&P Dow Jones Indices said Tuesday that the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.3% annual gain for December 2025, down from a 1.4% increase the previous month. “National home prices grew just 1.3% for the year — the weakest full-year gain since 2011, when prices fell 3.9%, and 5.3 percentage points below the 6.6% 10-year annual average,” said Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables & commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Godec cited two structural forces that have reshaped the market over recent years: mortgage rates and inflation. “The 30-year mortgage rate closed 2025 at 6.2%, well above the 4.8% 10-year average and a sharp contrast to the 3.9% average that prevailed from 2016 through 2020,” he said. “Meanwhile, annual inflation for 2025 came in at 2.7% — modestly below the 3.1% 10-year average — but still outpaced home price appreciation by 1.4 percentage points, effectively eroding real home values for most owners.”
At the city level, Chicago, New York, Cleveland and Minneapolis led markets for home-price gains. Conversely, Tampa, Denver, Phoenix, Dallas and Miami posted the steepest declines.
“This geographic divergence reflects the broader reordering underway: Historically steady Midwest and Northeast markets continued to outperform as Sun Belt markets that surged during the pandemic cycle extended their correction,” said Godec.
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