U. of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index Drops for Fourth Straight Month

Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 11% from March to 50.8, according to the closely watched University of Michigan index. “Sentiment has now lost more than 30% since December 2024 amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year,” according to Joanne Hsu, director of surveys of consumers at the university.  

The survey cited “multiple warning signs” that raise the risk of recession. Expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month. The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead increased for the fifth consecutive month and is now the highest since 2009.  

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% last month to 6.7% in April. It represented the highest reading since 1981 and marked four consecutive months of “unusually large” increases of 0.5 percentage points or more.  

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