12:30 Report is The Hill’s midday newsletter. Sign up here or using the box below:
It’s Wednesday. Remember how I mentioned the extreme humidity that most of the U.S. will be facing for the next two weeks? I have never felt the air feel so … sticky.
In today’s issue:
- Trump teases his options for Iran conflict
- Supreme Court upholds transgender care ban
- Ted Cruz vs. Tucker Carlson
- ‘Big, beautiful bill’ faces more headwinds
- Microsoft detects ‘infinite workday’
🚀 TALK OF THE MORNING
Trump is keeping his cards close:
President Trump is keeping the world on its toes with his evolving strategy toward Israel and Iran, refusing to reveal whether he will join Israel in the brewing Middle East conflict.
“I may do it. I may not do it. No one knows what I’m going to do,” Trump told reporters this morning on whether he plans to strike Iran.
Trump also said Iran reached out and suggested coming to the White House for talks, but the president said it’s too late.
How this came up: Trump unveiled two new, roughly 100-foot-tall flagpoles on the White House lawn this morning, declaring they are a “GIFT” from him.
Side note — who else is on Trump’s mind today?: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. During his flagpole remarks, Trump took a verbal swing at Powell, calling him “stupid” and predicting the Fed will not cut interest rates ahead of Powell’s 2:30 p.m. press conference.
OK, back to Iran—what we do know about Tehran’s thinking?: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that the U.S. will face “irreparable damage” if President Trump joins the conflict with Israel, declaring Iran “will never surrender.” (Trump urged Iran to do just that in an all-caps post Tuesday.)
Iran’s supreme leader posted on X: “It isn’t wise to tell the Iranian nation to surrender. What should the Iranian nation surrender to? We will never surrender in response to the attacks of anyone. This is the logic of the Iranian nation. This is the spirit of the Iranian nation.”
➤ THE U.S. MILITARY IS PREPARING TO POTENTIALLY JOIN:
The Hill’s Ellen Mitchell explains how the U.S. is positioning itself to potentially aid Israel in the simmering conflict.
This is interesting — why the U.S. would be particularly helpful to Israel: “Perhaps the biggest question facing Trump is whether the U.S. will drop bunker buster bombs, known as GBU-57, on Iran’s Fordow nuclear site, a move Iran hawks say is necessary to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear threat. Israel does not possess such a bomb, believed to be the only armament capable of destroying the highly protected nuclear plant buried deep in an Iranian mountain, nor the U.S. B-2 stealth bomber to drop it from. That has former and current Israeli officials pressing the U.S. to enter the conflict.” Read more.
➤ RELATED READS:
- The Hill: Israel running low on missile interceptors
- Morning Report: One of Trump’s most consequential decisions yet
- The New York Times: Iran War Reflects a Changed Middle East and a New Israeli Military Doctrine
- The Atlantic: Why Isn’t Russia Defending Iran?: Backing the most anti-Western Middle Eastern power was convenient until it wasn’t.
- Politico: Hegseth defers to general on Pentagon’s plans for Iran
- The Hill: What is a ‘bunker buster’ bomb?
🏛️ IN THE SUPREME COURT
Trans youth care ban upheld:
The Supreme Court upheld a Tennessee law that bans some medical treatments — puberty blockers and hormone treatments — for transgender minors.
The decision: 6-3, along ideological lines. The court’s three liberal justices dissented. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the majority opinion.
Why this matters more broadly: 23 other states have similar laws. This decision would likely impact those other states.
➤ PLUS, THE COURT WEIGHED IN ON EPA CASES:
The Supreme Court set rules for which federal courts can hear cases related to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
💡 Why this matters: “While technical, the decision may have some influence on actual policy outcomes since some regional federal courts may have a more liberal or conservative makeup than the D.C. federal court.” Read The Hill’s Rachel Frazin’s reporting on the decision
➤ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES:
There are 16 cases left to be decided before the Supreme Court’s summer break. The next round of opinions will happen at 10 a.m. on Friday. 📝 More SCOTUS coverage from The Hill’s courts team.
📺 IN CONGRESS
This is a wild interview:
Conservative media personality Tucker Carlson grilled fellow conservative Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) over Iran in what turned into a fiery exchange. Carlson posted a clip of the contentious interview last night and says the full interview will publish today.
It feels like everyone in Washington is talking about this clip.
📹 Watch the clip Carlson posted
A heated moment: When Cruz says he does not know the population of Iran, Carlson leans into him for failing to know the details of “the country you seek to topple.” “I don’t sit around memorizing population tables,” Cruz responded.
Another heated moment: Carlson quizzed Cruz on the “ethnic mix of Iran.” Cruz said Iran is Persian and “predominantly Shia.” Carlson pushed him to answer what percentage. The two then shouted over each other. More from the fiery interview
The ‘big, beautiful’ headache:
“Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is facing strong pushback from members of the GOP conference over the Finance Committee’s piece of President Trump’s tax and spending bill, which largely ignores GOP senators’ concerns about Medicaid cuts and the quick phaseout of clean-energy tax credits,” reports The Hill’s Alexander Bolton.
The issue: Senate Republicans who are concerned about the Medicaid cuts in the House-passed bill say they were blindsided by the Senate’s version of the bill, which would cut Medicaid by several hundred billion dollars beyond what the House proposed (!).
What this means for the bill and its July 4 deadline
➤ NOT TO PILE ON, BUT:
A growing number of House Republicans dislike the Senate’s version of the bill, reports The Hill’s Mychael Schnell.
Read this quote from Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), who switched from a Democrat to a Republican in 2019: “This is political stupidity; it’s political suicide. Why would you hurt these people?” Van Drew told The Hill, regarding the Medicaid cuts. “There are a lot of working poor, blue-collar people. There are people now — they were part of this new Republican Party, and we should make sure that they’re safe not only for political reasons but also for the right thing to do.”
💡 And as I like to remind everyone: Whatever the Senate passes, the House must then agree before sending it to the president’s desk for a signature. This is why Senate Republicans wanted to chop this bill into two pieces of legislation — one monster bill is very difficult to pass.
➤ TIDBIT:
White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and fossil fuel advocate Alex Epstein are expected to attend the Senate GOP lunch today, per Politico.
COMING UP
- The House is out. The Senate is in. President Trump is in Washington. (All EST):
- Noon Trump holds a swearing-in ceremony for an ambassador.
- 1 p.m. Trump lunches with Pakistan’s army chief, Gen. Asim Munir.
- 1:45 p.m. A Senate confirmation vote. 📆 Today’s agenda
- 2:30 p.m. Fed’s Jerome Powell holds news conference. Livestream
🐝 INTERNET BUZZ
🍣 Celebrate: Today is International Sushi Day.
😬 Ever heard of an ‘infinite workday?’: Well, we live in it. Microsoft released a report of Microsoft 365 users and found that workers are increasingly responding to meetings and taking meetings off-hours — and are interrupted every two minutes on average by an email, meeting or chat message. Takeaways
📱 TikTok may get another extension: President Trump said he will likely extend the TikTok sell-or-ban deadline by another 90 days.
👋 AND FINALLY…
Because you made it this far, watch this puppy’s first-ever experience with a car wash.
📺 Yesterday’s 12:30 Report video drew a lot of attention. Catch up with the 1-minute recap. Have a tip? I love hearing from you: cmartel@thehill.com. And check out more newsletters here. See you next time!
