Trump falls in polls, but Democrats shouldn’t get too comfortable

A new poll from Morning Consult shows President Trump’s approval rating has fallen to just 46 percent. Although that might be a sign of weakness for the right, it also serves as a stark indication that nearly half of the country still stands with the president.

In addition to his general approval rating, Trump is also slipping on pressing issues. Public opinion on how he’s handling the economy and crime is worsening. On immigration, Americans are essentially split (49 percent to 45 percent). 

Despite this decline, though, Trump continues to maintain a durable floor of support that Democrats shouldn’t, and frankly can’t afford to, look past. 

Although it appears that Democrats hold a narrow lead ahead of the 2026 midterms, Republicans will likely gain another five to 10 seats in the House after redistricting. 

And if Democrats want any chance of putting up a real fight, they’ll have to assemble an aggressive plan on inflation, security and border control — not just MAGA opposition.

Indeed, many Democratic campaigns in the post-Trump era have been wholly run on resistance to the administration. Although that strategy might rally the base and excite faithful voters, it doesn’t necessarily carry much weight in the long-term. 

And as we quickly approach both the midterms and the 2028 presidential election, it is vital for Democrats to recognize that resistance is not enough to win the White House.

Voters are tired of anti-Trump outrage, extreme partisanship, and political theater. What they really need, and what the Democratic Party must now deliver, is practical solutions to their everyday problems. 

A poll from AP-NORC shows that more than one-third of Democratic voters (35 percent) describe their political affiliation in negative terms, with 14 percent calling it “apathetic” or “tepid” and 9 percent saying their party is “broken.” 

Put plainly, Democrats are not seen as fierce competitors, even by those within their own ranks. It’s evident that the left is scrambling to find a leader who can project strength and confidence against Trump while also being responsive to the issues Americans care most about. 

In this search, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has emerged as one of the party’s top contenders for 2028. He has welcomed conservatives like Charlie Kirk onto his podcast, publicly debated with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and positioned himself as someone willing to counter Republicans on their own turf. 

But after trying both accommodation and confrontation with Trump and the Republicans, Newsom has ultimately put his political fate in the hands of California voters. In November, they will vote to approve the governor’s redistricting plan that blunts the impact of Texas Republicans’ gerrymandering efforts. 

Newsom’s willingness to challenge the far right looks promising, especially to those frustrated with the party’s image of weakness, but it’s just one part of the equation. A candidate who can throw punches is useful, but it also brings on the risk of falling into the very trap that keeps Trump viable.

If Newsom, or any Democrat for that matter, leans too heavily on combative rhetoric alone, he will only mirror Trump’s antics: loud, polarizing and focused more on winning arguments than solving problems. 

To that end, it will be crucial for Democrats to preserve the support they already have while also appealing to undecided and swing voters. 

Particularly, that means finding middle ground on crime, law enforcement and border control, highlighting the need for balance between compassion and accountability. Americans want a secure border, but they also acknowledge the importance of legal immigration and proper pathways to citizenship.  

On the economy, Democrats need to advance a plan that protects key social and healthcare programs in a fiscally responsible manner. Both sides of the aisle recognize that federal spending is bloated — the job now for the left is to tackle cuts in a measured way, distinct from the Department of Government Efficiency’s harsh approach. 

Taken together, Trump’s weakened ratings presents a prime opportunity for Democrats to reset their message and develop an effective agenda. Voters are fed up not solely with Trump but with politics as usual, creating a window for the left to step in and demonstrate that it has clear, credible policy stances on top issues. 

It’s no secret that accomplishing this will be difficult — Democrats find themselves in yet another defining moment that will test whether the party can actually offer tangible solutions or whether they will again fall short. 

But this moment won’t last forever. Trump’s decline in the polls can swiftly disappear if Democrats retreat to old habits. And if that’s the case, the door is left wide open for Trumpism to remain competitive well into the next few cycles. 

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Bill Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. He is the author of “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”