Today’s election results in California, Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York City and elsewhere could affect congressional and gubernatorial races nationwide in 2026 and will show the impact of President Donald Trump’s current unpopularity.
Candidates for governor and other statewide offices and legislatures will be on the ballot in Virginia and New Jersey. California voters will decide whether to approve a Democratic ballot measure on congressional redistricting.
New York City voters will elect a mayor, citywide officeholders and city council members. Big municipalities like Detroit, Cleveland and Miami will also hold elections.
If voters unhappy with Trump’s abysmal performance in office give Democrats victories in these contests, the party will improve its chances of winning a majority of the 435 U.S. House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships on the ballot nationwide next year.
If Zohran Mamdani is elected New York City mayor, Trump and Republican candidates across the nation will likely continue to demonize him as a dangerous radical. They will try to make him the face of the Democratic Party and falsely brand all Democrats as socialists and communists.
But there’s a sizable number of voters who are not buying into the old political labels. They want results. And as a representative of a new generation of leaders, Mamdani will be under tremendous pressure to deliver on his affordability agenda.
Trump could be more of a liability than an asset to Republicans on the ballot. The latest RealClearPolitics average of national opinion polls shows only about 44 percent of adults nationwide approve of Trump’s job performance. The Republican president is faring worse where the most important elections are taking place.
The World Population Review examined polling on Trump’s job approval rating in every state and found it was 42 percent in Virginia, 40 percent in New Jersey and 33 percent in California. Although there is no recent polling on his approval rating in heavily Democratic New York City, Trump won only 30 percent of the vote there in the 2024 presidential election.
The most important contest today, in terms of its effect on next year’s House races, will be in California. Proposition 50 asks voters if they want to approve new congressional district boundaries for the elections coming up in 2026, 2028 and 2030. After that, an independent commission would go back to conducting nonpartisan redistricting every 10 years, to keep up with population changes measured by the U.S. Census.
An October poll by the Public Policy Institute of California found 56 percent of likely voters in the state said they will vote for Proposition 50. The measure could enable Democrats to pick up as many as five House seats, to counteract partisan redistricting adopted this year by Republicans in Texas, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina and possibly other Republican-controlled states to come.
Redistricting usually takes place only at the start of each decade, but Trump pushed Republican-controlled states to redraw districts early to benefit Republicans. The California legislature correctly responded to counteract that power grab by approving new district maps to benefit Democrats.
In the Virginia race for governor, polls give former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger a significant lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. In New Jersey, Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill holds a narrow lead over Republican businessman Jack Ciattarelli in the gubernatorial contest.
If moderates Spanberger and Sherrill are victorious, it would be an indication that Democrats have some momentum and voter enthusiasm to capture the House majority, make gains in the Senate and win a sizeable number of governorships next year with candidates that appeal to both traditional Democrats voters and swing voters not aligned with either party.
Victories by Spanberger and Sherrill could also prompt some congressional Republicans and non-incumbent GOP candidates to abandon their disgraceful complete subservience to Trump. It’s time to return to the system of checks and balances.
Victories by Trump supporters Earle-Sears and Ciattarelli could encourage Republicans running in 2026 to draw closer to the president and loyally support his frequently changing policies, even when those policies hurt their constituents, as they often do. Thus far, the MAGA movement has kept Trump’s base unified.
One thing is certain: The election will give Virginia its first woman governor. And if Earle-Sears wins, she will join Maryland Democratic Gov. Wes Moore as one of two Black governors in office and will be the first Black woman to serve as a governor of any state in U.S. history.
All the pre-election polls will soon become irrelevant when actual votes are counted. Polls have often been proven wrong, as happened when pollsters were stunned to see Trump defeat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential race and win both the electoral college and popular vote in the 2024 presidential cycle.
Once today’s results are known, campaign 2025 will be over and the far more consequential campaign 2026 will begin. To be continued.
Donna Brazile is a political strategist, a contributor to ABC News and former chair of the Democratic National Committee. She is the author of “Hacks: Inside the Break-ins and Breakdowns That Put Donald Trump in the White House.”
