Asked to sum up 2025 in three words, Berkadia Senior Vice President – Head of Investment Sales Mike Miner responded, “bumpy, busy, basics.” He clarified that “basics” in this context refers to economic basics: the law of supply and demand, which will continue to be a factor going into 2026.
His Berkadia colleague Josh Bodin, Senior Vice President, Capital Markets Strategy & Trading and co-leader of the firm’s Freddie Mac conventional relationship, answered the same question with “active, selective, surprising.” The selectivity came from capital sources who, though active, were particular about “what they’re pursuing and how they’re pursuing it. As for “surprising,” the surprises emanated from the macroeconomic environment, with everything from Liberation Day tariffs to yield curves.
Miner and Bodin were the guests of Ernie Katai, Executive Vice President and Head of Production, in “The State of CRE: 2025 in Review and 2026 Forecast,” part of the Inside the Deal, A CRE Podcast by Berkadia® series. All three concurred that transaction velocity is stronger going into 2026 than it was in the early months of 2025. “It feels good in that deals are getting done with some momentum,” commented Katai.
However, making those deals happen has proven to be a challenge. “I had an investment advisor say to me the other day that he’s never won more listings than he has this year, and he’s never had to work harder on deals than he has this year,” Miner said.
Even as large portfolio and entity-level transactions made a strong comeback with what Miner termed “AUM aggregation,” he noted that private clients continue to be the most active. “They have a little bit more discretionary capital to be more flexible and opportunistic with how they underwrite deals,” he said.
That being the case, Miner pointed to “a more diverse buyer set” in 2025 than in recent years, with everyone from separate managed accounts to non-traded REITs showing up. Along with that, Bodin cited a well-populated debt market, including a surge of issuance of securitized products. A late-2025 surprise came from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which increased the multifamily caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by $15 billion each for 2026.
As for traditional banks, Bodin noted that they have become “a lot more selective in their direct lending platform. You’ve got lower leverage and a focus on strong sponsors, clear exit strategies.” This level of caution is likely to persist into the coming year.
He predicted a continuing surge of debt availability across the spectrum in 2026. “I think multifamily borrowers will have more options than ever next year,” Bodin said.
At the same time, “we’re seeing a lending market that’s both deep and disciplined,” said Bodin. “I think there’s no shortage of capital for multifamily, but it’s clear that lenders are being more strategic and thoughtful about how they deploy it.”
Investors, too, are sharpening their focus, a concentration that extends to managing their assets post-acquisition. Miner said owners currently are “homing in on their operational rigor, because right now it’s a question of occupancy and rents and driving NOI,” he said. That means focusing on specific property opportunities: “look at a property in a submarket and make sure that you are positioning it for rent increases into next year, pricing it appropriately, understanding all the nuances of that specific property.”
The discussion also delved into specific sales transactions as well as more broadly discussing renter demographics, investors’ fundraising and deployment strategies and the role that government plays, at both the local and federal levels. As with prior installments in the series, “The State of CRE: 2025 in Review and 2026 Forecast” is available via Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music and iHeartPodcasts.
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