Iowa Republicans are staring down a potentially contentious primary in the state’s gubernatorial race as they look to prevent Democrats from winning control of the office.
Rep. Randy Feenstra (R) became the most high-profile Republican to jump into the race, though a number of other notable figures are eyeing bids, including state Attorney General Brenna Bird. Former Iowa state Rep. Brad Sherman (R) also launched his gubernatorial campaign earlier this year. Meanwhile, it’s unclear whether President Trump will weigh in.
A fractious primary could stand to make the party more vulnerable in the race, which Cook Political Report rates as “lean Republican.”
“In some form or fashion you’re probably staring at a pretty competitive GOP primary when on the other hand you’ve got a Democrat who’s pretty much got the nomination locked down already, has the ability to self-fund and is out there driving a pretty aggressive campaign in its infancy,” said one Republican strategist.
Democrats seem thrilled with the idea of a Republican primary, with one national Democratic operative characterizing Gov. Kim Reynolds’s (R ) announcement that she would not seek reelection as one that set the forming GOP field into “chaos.”
“It seems like there is going to be a very crowded, messy, and expensive Republican primary,” the operative said.
Feenstra officially filed to run for governor earlier this month, and has since rolled out an ad touting his conservative record. According to the ad tracking company AdImpact, Feenstra’s campaign has reserved $294,000 in television ad reservations.
Additionally, Feenstra said in the 24-hour period since he launched his exploratory committee for governor earlier this month that he raised $1.1 million.
“Randy’s demonstrated an ability to raise money, which is obviously very important in a governor’s race. It’s going to be an expensive race,” said David Kochel, a veteran Iowa Republican strategist.
Bird could also prove to be a formidable candidate if she decides to get in.
In a statement to the Des Moines Register earlier this month, Bird said “running for governor isn’t a decision to be made lightly. We look forward to sharing our plans soon for an exciting 2026.”
Bird can point to her 2022 attorney general win as proof she has the ability to win statewide. She also has experience in the state’s political arena, having served as chief of staff to former Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa). Feenstra defeated King, who served nine terms, in the 2020 Republican primary for the seat.
One of Bird’s greatest potential assets, should she get in, could be an endorsement from Trump. Bird has allied herself closely with Trump during her time as attorney general. Last year, she traveled to New York City for Trump’s hush money trial and campaigned for him during the 2024 presidential race.
While Feenstra has also touted his support for Trump, some Republicans say Bird would be the most likely to secure Trump’s backing.
Last week, Bird posted a video to X featuring clips of Trump speaking fondly of her. At one point in the compilation, Trump says “she’s going to be your governor someday, I predict.” The video is captioned “someday,” with the eyes emoji.
“Obviously, caucuses and primaries are different, but you saw the president’s strength in the most recent caucus. I think in a primary electorate, it would have a pretty deep impact. Does that mean she’s unbeatable? No,” said the unnamed GOP strategist. “You have to turn out to be a great candidate to be able to carry that endorsement, or at least a good enough candidate and she’d have to prove that still.”
There are other Republicans who could still jump into the race, including state Sen. Mike Bousselot (R), who launched an exploratory committee last month. Iowa state Rep. Bobby Kaufmann (R) and House Speaker Pat Grassley have not ruled out runs.
But Republicans note that Feenstra’s decision to get in early is a savvy strategy, allowing him to get a headstart ahead of other potentially strong Republican opponents.
“He’s trying to lay the claim to force people that are otherwise thinking about it, to think he’s too far ahead and dissuade him from getting in,” said the unnamed Republican strategist. “He’s trying to get out ahead because if [Bird] does get in you want to have as much of a head-start advantage over the Trump endorsement as possible. I think he’s covering both bases by smartly getting out of the gate as quickly as possible.”
On the Democratic side, Rob Sand is also seeking to get a head start. No other Democrats have jumped into the primary, and Sand is seen as a potentially formidable general election opponent.
Sand is the only Iowa Democrat serving in a statewide office. In 2018, he defeated his Republican opponent by four points. Four years later, he won his reelection by less than 3,000 voters.
The Cook Political Report moved the race’s rating from “solid Republican” to “lean Republican” shortly after Sand entered the race, marking a “double rating” shift.
“There’s no doubt that Iowa’s a challenging state, but we believe that there is a real path to victory for a strong Democratic nominee who fits the state well,” the national Democratic operative said.
Any Democrat running statewide faces an uphill climb in a state that Trump won by 13 points, but Sand’s campaign points to his approval ratings and fundraising prowess. In a memo released earlier this week, Sand’s campaign cites a September 2024 poll showing Sand with a 53 percent approval rate, “the highest approval rating among Iowa’s statewide elected officials.”
Sand’s campaign also notes he raised $2.25 million within 24 hours of launching his gubernatorial campaign, touting it as a sign of strength. Sand’s campaign noted that the haul does not include any self-funding or family donations and includes donations from all 99 counties in the state.
Still, Republicans point out that last campaign finance reports from last year showed he raised $8 million during the off year in 2024, which included $7 million from family members and 28,000 smaller individual donations.
“He’s got the resources, clearly,” said the unnamed Republican strategist. “He’s made a run in the past and made a real dent and so given the right environment and depending on who Republicans nominate, I think he’s got a real shot, if not even seen as the odds-on favorite to be their next governor.”
The strategist added, “It’s a real challenge. Some of it will be dependent on the environment, some of it will be dependent on who the Republicans ultimately nominate, and a lot of it will be dependent on how people feel about the president.”
