Few politicians have more on the line outside the actual candidates than Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) in next week’s New York City mayoral election.
The New York progressive has been a staunch supporter of Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist who won the Democratic Party’s nomination and is the favorite to win the election.
As Ocasio-Cortez eyes a possible New York Senate run and even a presidential bid in 2028, Democrats say Mamdani’s successes and failures could either be a huge boost to her or be a drag on a future campaign.
“I’d say she has more at stake maybe even than Mamdani because of what she’s competing for,” said one Democratic strategist, offering a nod to the idea that the 36-year-old Ocasio-Cortez could be the progressive standard-bearer as soon as 2028.
“If he has major wins, she’ll have major wins. But if he flops, Republicans will inevitably tie her to him. And that could hurt her,” the strategist said.
At the same time, progressives say a Mamdani win would be a significant boost for her.
“At the stage we’re in right now where Democrats are trying to rebuild the party, you need proof of concept, and for someone like AOC … if she can show that Mamdani is successful not only as a candidate but in governing, that’s a real benefit to her,” said Democratic strategist Joel Payne, using an abbreviation for Ocasio-Cortez’s name. “People want to demonstrate that their ideas can work at scale.
“If someone like Mamdani has success and you were part of that, that’s good proof of concept for you,” Payne added.
Ocasio-Cortez gave Mamdani her backing before the Democratic primary in June — well ahead of other prominent New York lawmakers who refused to endorse him. Since then she has been one of the candidate’s strongest advocates in what may be a tightening race in the final days of the campaign.
A Suffolk University poll released Monday showed former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo — who is running as an independent — narrowing Mamdani’s lead. The poll showed that while Mamdani is still ahead of Cuomo by 10 points — 44 percent support to 34 percent — the former governor is gaining with New York City Mayor Eric Adams now out of the race. The same poll in September showed Mamdani with a 20-point lead.
A separate poll from the Manhattan Institute showed Mamdani with a larger lead, winning 43 percent of likely voters compared with 28 percent for Cuomo, while Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa received 19 percent. The survey showed 8 percent of those polled were undecided.
This weekend, appearing before a crowd of 10,000 people, Ocasio-Cortez spoke out for Mamdani at a rally in Queens alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). She cast Mamdani as part of a powerful progressive movement punching back at President Trump and Republicans at a time when the establishment wing of the Democratic Party is weak.
“I’m talking to you, Donald Trump,” Ocasio-Cortez said, before adding, “In nine short days we will work our hearts out to elect Zohran Kwame Mamdani as the next mayor of the great city of New York.”
The congresswoman sought to use the New York mayoral race as an example of what Democrats are facing around the country as they battle Trump and his party.
“It’s not a coincidence that the very forces that Zohran is up against in this race mirrors what we are up against nationally … an authoritarian, criminal presidency fueled by corruption and bigotry, and an ascendant right-wing extremist movement,” she added.
Since winning the Democratic primary this summer, Mamdani has been a foil for Trump and his party, a narrative that has only escalated as Election Day inches closer.
If Mamdani wins, it is clear that Republicans and Trump will seek to tie every Democrat in the country to Mamdani.
What is equally clear is that the progressive wing of the Democratic Party is feeling ascendant, something reflected in the Mamdani rally in Queens and also in Ocasio-Cortez’s own rise as a clear presidential contender — if she chooses to run.
This week, after House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) belatedly endorsed Mamdani after months of holding out, Republicans quickly cast the New York hopeful as the new face of the Democratic Party.
“Hakeem Jeffries is now all-in for the socialist agenda of Mamdani,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) told reporters this week. “[Mamdani] is the head of their party now. When he gets elected mayor of New York, he’s giving the marching orders to the rest of the Democrats, and they want to raise taxes on everybody.”
Trump, who has been very intentional about his targets, has gone after Ocasio-Cortez in recent days.
“AOC is low IQ,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Monday. “If you give her an IQ test, have her pass like the exams that I decided to take when I was at Walter Reed. … Let AOC go against Trump.”
Some political observers say Ocasio-Cortez will be tied to Mamdani not only because of her strong endorsement of him but because of their shared political ideology. Both politicians are seen as part of the progressive wing of the party who advocate for economic equality, affordability and access to health care, education and housing.
While Ocasio-Cortez has also labeled herself a democratic socialist, last year, the Democratic Socialists of America pulled their endorsement of her saying she wasn’t entirely supportive of the efforts to end the war in Gaza.
“There’s already this concern and this ongoing debate which is, how do Democrats position themselves and if Mamdani crashes and burns as mayor, will it be easier for Democrats to conclude, ‘We need to moderate more and we need to come back to the center’?” said Grant Reeher, the director of Syracuse University’s Campbell Public Affairs Institute. “And in that way, AOC’s star loses some of its luster and there may be some blowback.”
But if Mamdani is successful, other political operatives say they predict Ocasio-Cortez will use that as fuel.
“As a nationally recognized leader, who’s trying to move the party forward, a Mamdani win would strengthen her arguments for change,” said Democratic strategist Basil Smikle, who served as the executive director of the New York State Democratic Party. “You would likely see her hitting the trail more so in forging a new Democratic coalition.”
But the Democratic strategist was skeptical.
“He has a lot to lose but she has more to lose,” the strategist said.
