NEW POLLING DATA and 2024 election analyses underscore the difficulties the Democratic Party faces as it seeks a new identity during President Trump’s second term in office.
The numbers are stark:
• A new survey from The Economist/YouGov finds Democrats trailing Republicans by 10 points in net favorability. Republicans post a negative 11 percent net favorability rating (41 percent positive to 52 percent negative), while Democrats have a negative 21 percent net rating (36/57).
It’s worse for Congressional Democrats, who are 24 points underwater and trailing Congressional Republicans by 14 points.
• The New York Times ran an analysis of the past three presidential elections by county and found a broad rightward shift. Trump increased his ballot share in 1,433 counties, which make up more than 46 percent of the nation’s more than 3,100 counties. The Democrats only accomplished this in 57 counties, or less than 2 percent.
• Concerns about President Biden’s health and the efforts of those around him to conceal his decline has led to a trust deficit. On the question of who has been more transparent about their health, Trump leads Biden by double-digits in an Economist/YouGov poll. Those concerns have dominated Democratic discourse since the release of the book “Original Sin,” which details how Biden’s closest advisers orchestrated his presidency to shield him from scrutiny before he dropped out of the presidential race.
• A recent report from the Democratic data firm Catalist found the party suffering a 9-point drop among young men between the 2020 and 2024 elections, punctuated by a substantial drop among racial minorities.
|
DEMS GRAPPLE WITH PAST FAILURES
|
Those data points have led to some reflection among the party’s potential new leaders.
Longtime Democratic political operative Rahm Emanuel, who is considering running for president in 2028, described the Democratic brand as “toxic” and “weak and woke” in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
“I’m tired of sitting in the back seat when somebody’s gunning it at 90 miles an hour for a cliff,” Emanuel said. “If you want the country to give you the keys to the car, somebody’s got to be articulating an agenda that’s fighting for America, not just fighting Trump.”
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who has at times criticized the party, disagreed with Emanuel’s assessment.
“No, Democrats are not woke and weak,” he posted on X. “We are a great party and should be proud of that. We industrialized America and delivered Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. We have a concrete vision of a new economic patriotism to build in America again and deliver 21st-century economic independence and security for every American community and family.”
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, another potential 2028 contender, was asked in an interview with The Bulwark what the party should have done differently in the run up to 2024.
He said Democrats should have fought to reopen schools sooner during the pandemic; cracked down on illegal immigration; and been more attuned to voter concerns about inflation.
Money wasn’t an issue for Democrats, who outraised and outspent Trump in 2024. The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports that Democrats are grappling with the fact that their problems run deeper than money.
“You can’t spend your way out of the type of political challenge that we’re in right now,” said Democratic strategist Joel Payne. “It’s going to take more than spending and trying to overwhelm the other side with your bank account.”
Recently, the party has been gripped by debate over how they ignored Biden’s decline, when polls showed it was among the top concerns for voters.
In a new op-ed, former Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who was ostracized for his lonely primary challenge against Biden, says he urged Govs. JB Prtizker (D-Ill.) and Gretchen Whitmer (D-Mich.) to launch their own primary challenges before he got in himself.
The issue has ignited debate around the need for a new generation of leaders, particularly after three House Democratic lawmakers died in office this year, making it easier for Republicans to pass Trump’s agenda.
Parnes writes:
“The party has been grappling with generational tensions for years in the House, where former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), 85, retained her grip on power for two decades; in the Senate, where Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), 74, has led the party for almost a decade; and in the Supreme Court, where former Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death in 2020 at age 87 raised questions about whether she should have retired sooner to allow former President Obama to fill the vacancy.”
|
💡Perspectives:
• Notes From The Middleground: Democrats are in serious trouble.
• Dean Phillips: I warned my party about Biden’s health. Will they listen now?
• The Liberal Patriot: The psychology of the Dems’ decline.
• The Hill: Democrats are begging for change — will their party ever listen?
• The Hill: Reports of the Democratic Party’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.
|
-
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Hamas leader Mohammed Sinwar was killed in an airstrike in Gaza.
-
Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a new visa restriction policy targeting foreign nationals who are deemed “responsible for censorship of protected expression” in the U.S.
-
The Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C., will reopen at noon Thursday for the first time since two Israeli Embassy workers were murdered there.
|
|
|
© Samuel Corum, Getty Images
|
White House sends DOGE cuts to Congress
|
The Trump administration will send Congress a package to claw back $9.4 billion in funding next week, with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) pledging to “act quickly” to codify Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cuts into law.
Among the items on the chopping block: Funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting — which funds NPR and PBS — and USAID.
Elon Musk on Tuesday vented frustration with Congressional Republicans over the spending figures in President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” saying it “undermines” the work he’s done at DOGE.
“I was, like, disappointed to see the massive spending bill, frankly, which increases the budget deficit… and it undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing,” he said in a preview of an interview set to air this weekend on “CBS Sunday Morning.”
Musk is not alone in that view.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) blasted Congressional Republicans, saying they failed to enact the spending cuts Musk sought through his work at DOGE.
“You know Elon Musk went into this DOGE effort, he was getting lampooned, they’re firebombing his Tesla dealerships, media smearing him relentlessly, his businesses suffer…because he basically said, look, we can’t keep doing this,” DeSantis said in a Tuesday speech. “We need to reduce the amount of money the federal government is spending and yet we have a Republican Congress…and not once cent in DOGE cuts have been implemented by the Congress.”
That argument could bolster fiscal hawks, who view Trump’s agenda bill as a “debt bomb.”
Trump on Wednesday declined to directly respond to Musk’s criticism of the taxes and spending bill, which faces a precarious path through the Senate. At least two Republican senators have said they won’t support the legislation because it raises the debt ceiling and fails to rein in spending.
“We need to get a lot of support and we have a lot of support,” Trump said. “We had to get it through the House, the House was, we had no Democrats. You know, if it was up to the Democrats, they’ll take the 65 percent increase.”
Musk has recently stepped back from his government work to focus on running Tesla, which hit choppy waters amid Musk’s polarizing foray into politics.
“DOGE is just becoming the whipping boy for everything,” Musk said in an interview with The Washington Post. “Something bad would happen anywhere, and we would get blamed for it even if we had nothing to do with it.”
|
💡Perspectives:
• The Free Press: Trump family business deals test ethical boundaries.
• Washington Monthly: The GOP’s waste, fraud and abuse lie.
• The Hill: Trump is breaking the global order, but maybe that’s a good thing.
• The Hill: Trump’s sneaky plan to govern by gaming the courts.
• The Atlantic: Trump’s tirades aren’t swaying Putin.
|
Trump administration leans into crypto
|
Vice President Vance delivered the keynote address at the Bitcoin 2025 Conference in Las Vegas on Wednesday in the Trump administration’s latest overture to the crypto community.
Vance encouraged the crypto industry to expand its involvement in politics, after the industry spent more than $200 million to boost crypto-friendly candidates in the 2024 election.
“Part of the reason that I’m standing here, part of the reason that Bernie Moreno defeated Sherrod Brown in the Senate campaign last year, is because you guys got organized and got involved in American politics,” Vance said, referring to candidates in his home state of Ohio.
Eric Trump and Donald Trump, Jr. will address the conference later today, as they seek to promote the family’s new bitcoin ventures. The Trump Media & Technology Group plans to raise $2.5 billion to invest in bitcoin.
Last week, Trump stirred an ethics controversy by holding a private dinner for more than 200 individuals who invested enormous sums in a $TRUMP cryptocurrency.
On Wednesday, the Labor Department announced it would roll back a Biden-era policy to discourage crypto investments in 401(k) accounts.
MORE ADMINISTRATION NEWS…
• Trump is on a pardoning spree, issuing a full pardon Wednesday to former Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.), who was convicted of tax fraud in 2014. Grimm was released from prison in 2015. In 2024, he was paralyzed in a horse-riding accident.
Reality TV stars Todd and Julie Chrisley also received pardons. The stars of “Chrisley Knows Best” were convicted on bank fraud and tax evasion charges. Julie Chrisley was sentenced to seven years in prison, and Todd Chrisley was sentenced to 12 years behind bars.
The Chrisleys say they were victims of overzealous prosecutors that used unethical tactics to secure their convictions.
Here are three things to know about the Chrisley pardon.
Marc Short, who was chief of staff to former Vice President Mike Pence, described the Trump administration’s approach to pardons as “pretty gross” in an interview with CNN.
This week, Trump also pardoned Paul Walczak, who had pleaded guilty to tax crimes. The pardon came only weeks after Walczak’s mother attended a Mar-a-Lago fundraising dinner where tickets cost $1 million.
Trump said Wednesday he’d take a look at whether to issue pardons for those convicted in the 2020 failed plot to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), saying “it looked to me like somewhat of a railroad job.”
|
© Mark Schiefelbein, Associated Press
|
State-level culture wars rage
|
A round-up from the states, where the culture wars are running hot…
• California will allow more girls to participate in this weekend’s state track-and-field championships amid controversy over a trans athlete who qualified to compete in the finals.
The California Interscholastic Federation (CIF) said more “biological female” athletes would be allowed to compete after President Trump threatened to pull government funding from California for defying his executive order eliminating “male competitive participation in women’s sports.”
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) praised CIF’s changes, calling it “a reasonable, respectful way to navigate a complex issue without compromising competitive fairness.”
Trump said he’ll be speaking to Newsom about the issue this week. The Justice Department said Wednesday it will investigate whether a California law violates federal laws against sex discrimination by allowing transgender student-athletes to participate in sports consistent with their gender identity.
Elsewhere, the Trump administration has zeroed in on the University of California (UC) as its next campus target, amid the ongoing legal and funding battles with Harvard University.
Leo Terrell, senior counsel at the Department of Justice, said on Fox News’s “The Faulkner Focus” that there will be “massive lawsuits against [the] UC system” and other colleges “on the East Coast, on the West Coast, in the Midwest.”
• The Texas Senate approved a bill strictly defining man and woman and requiring state documents to reflect a person’s sex as defined at birth.
In the heated Texas GOP Senate primary, state Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Sen. John Cornyn by 9 points in a new poll. The Cornyn campaign launched a new ad accusing Paxton of “funding the left.”
• Abortion is banned in Missouri again after the state’s highest court overturned two lower court rulings blocking its abortion ban.
• The Trump administration is suing North Carolina and its State Board of Elections for failing to maintain an accurate voter roll.
• The Department of Energy ordered a Michigan coal plant to remain open, citing possible electricity shortfalls in the central U.S.
• Here’s a look at who could replace Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) in the Senate. Tuberville is running for governor.
|
💡Perspectives:
• Vox: Trump figured out how to hit Harvard where it really hurt.
• Racket: Who started the culture war?
• Peter Navarro: The bond market is missing the real ‘big, beautiful’ story.
• New York: Trump’s politics of plunder.
• The American Spectator: The wages of COVID.
|
|
|
Someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up to get your own copy: TheHill.com/Evening. See you next time!
|
|
|
|
