Rising costs and fertilizer shortages—turbocharged by war in the Persian Gulf—are already reshaping planting decisions for US farmers, says one record-holding farmer growing corn and soybeans, along with barley, oats, triticale, and wheat on 650-acres in Hickory, North Carolina.
Russell Hedrick holds his state’s record for soybean yield and the world dryland corn yield record, and is now building Revolution Drones, a business specializing in domestically assembled spray drones tailored for American farming.
He told AgFunderNews: “Most of the farmers I met and spoke with over the last month are not secured for their spring fertilizer,” noting that his own farm had to scramble to secure inputs as suppliers “were not ready for the early spring and not stocked on everything we needed.” An earlier planting season—“three weeks earlier this year than last year”—further intensified the squeeze.
Fertilizer costs are climbing sharply, meanwhile. Hedrick estimates his are up “at least $15k to $20k,” forcing him to “buy the bare minimum to get the crop planted.”
He added: “We plan to top dress mid-season to see if current prices offer any relief as demand goes down. I think that this will have a much bigger impact than what is coming out of Washington D.C. I attended a few meetings in March and heard numbers as high as 40% acre changes from corn to soybeans [which require far less fertilizer], solely because fertilizer couldn’t be applied before planting.
“I think you will see a massive decline in both yield and acres,” he predicted. “Some farmers are abandoning leases, some are switching crops and others are just using fewer inputs. I think the earlier yield numbers produced back in February are a pipe dream at this point with even tillage being reduced with fuel prices.
“This is really going to be an exciting year to see if the USDA takes these things into consideration in future report numbers or if they keep them inflated. That doesn’t even take into account that some [farmers] will go with the bare minimum on in-season inputs and if we see a big outbreak of tar spot [a fungal disease affecting corn] or disease pressure, that will compound its effect on final crop yield.”
S2G Investments: US is not insulated from global markets
His comments came as multiple stakeholders warned that supply disruptions linked to the Persian Gulf, a critical hub for global fertilizer trade, will translate into lower application and weaker yields globally, something Helios AI warns could push global food prices 12–18% higher by the end of 2026.
In a lengthy analysis this week, S2G investments managing director energy, venture & growth Francis O’Sullivan explained that while domestic energy production in the US provides a buffer that many countries lack, it does not insulate Americans from global price shocks as oil and natural gas are globally traded commodities with prices set on international markets.
“When one-fifth of global supply is disrupted, the price of every barrel rises — regardless of where it was pumped.”
As for fertilizer, he said, the price impact “has been immediate and severe. Urea prices at the port of New Orleans jumped from $475/ ton on February 28 to as high as $550/ ton by March 6. Phosphate prices jumped approximately $30 per ton over the same period. Anhydrous ammonia and UAN prices also rose. Global fertilizer markets were already tight before this conflict, with China restricting exports to ensure domestic supply and European producers cutting output due to already high energy costs.”
India — which sources more than 40% of its urea and phosphatic fertilizer imports from the Middle East — faces “acute exposure,” he said. “Unlike oil, there is no strategic fertilizer reserve to release.”
Meanwhile, the fact that the S&P 500 has only fallen modestly should not reassure us, he said. “The industries getting hit hardest — transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, small business — are the ones that employ the most Americans and most directly affect household budgets. The S&P 500’s relative resilience is a story about Big Tech, not about the economy most people live in.”
“A true energy emergency demands a true emergency response: one that aggressively supports oil, gas, nuclear, wind, solar, battery storage, geothermal, and efficiency simultaneously. All the arrows in our quiver. Let’s, for once, try to put the polls aside. Because it is the only rational response to a world where a 21-mile-wide strait of water 6,000 miles away can hold the American economy hostage.” Francis O’Sullivan, S2G Investments
AFBF: ‘Failure to act could lead to disruptions not seen since 2022’
Helios AI CEO Francisco Martin-Rayo, noting that planting decisions being made today will determine what the world’s grain reserves look like heading into next year, issued an even more stark warning:
“For tens of millions of smallholder farmers across sub-Saharan Africa, where over 90% of fertilizer is imported and application rates are already at minimums, a $625/ton urea price doesn’t mean applying slightly less fertilizer. It means a harvest failure.”
Meanwhile, freight and insurance costs are “rising across every route that touches the region, and those costs are flowing to suppliers who will eventually try to pass them to you,” added Martin-Rayo, who has just released a “tactical playbook” for procurement managers trying to navigate the crisis.
Soy and corn growers urge gov’t to revoke duties on phosphate fertilizer imports
Against this backdrop, The American Soybean Association and the National Corn Growers Association have urged the US Dept of Commerce to revoke countervailing duties (CVDs) on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco and Russia instituted following a petition from US-based fertilizer giant Mosaic, which said unfairly subsidized imports were flooding the US market.
In a letter signed by multiple US farming organizations, the signatories explained: “These CVDs have placed additional strain on farmers already navigating volatile commodity markets, weather uncertainty, and rising expenses across nearly every category of farm operations.
“For many growers, fertilizer represented 40% of operating costs in 2025 and price increases in this critical input directly affect planting decisions, long-term viability, and the livelihoods of farm families.”
Canada-based Nutrien, a leading supplier of phosphate fertilizer, has been one of the main beneficiaries of the CVDs, but recently told trade publication Agri-Pulse that removing them “would be a constructive step” in the current circumstances.
Congress must go beyond short-term relief, says Farm Action
In a March 30 letter to congressional leadership, Angela Huffman at nonprofit Farm Action urged lawmakers to “go beyond short-term relief” and consider other measures including a federal price-gouging law for agricultural inputs, stronger antitrust enforcement and limits on consolidation, greater market transparency, use of the Defense Production Act to safeguard supply, and investment in more decentralized and regional fertilizer production.
With just a handful of players controlling the production and manufacturing of nitrogen- and potassium-based fertilizer, limited transparency around pricing and inventory leaves farmers unable to assess whether price increases are justified, she claimed.
The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), meanwhile, has warned President Trump that failure to act could lead to “disruptions to the food supply chain not seen since 2022 when food price inflation reached 40-year highs.”
Specifically, it has urged the President to secure global fertilizer shipments by using the military and diplomatic coordination to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, while also leveraging federal financing and insurance tools to ensure vessels can operate. Domestically, it calls for maximizing port, rail, and barge capacity and waiving the Jones Act to speed distribution, adding key fertilizer inputs to exemption lists and suspending countervailing duties on imports.
Further reading:
Guest article: Food’s fossil reckoning; energy crises are the new normal, and food is next
Guest article: Technology now exists to decouple fertilizer from oil and gas markets
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