New York City Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani holds a commanding lead over former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), who is running as an independent, according to a new poll released one week before Election Day.
The five-day Manhattan Institute survey, which closed on Sunday, shows Mamdani leading with 43 percent of likely voters’ support, following by Cuomo’s 28 percent and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa’s 19 percent. Another 8 percent are undecided.
In a Suffolk University poll conducted around the same time, Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo was more narrow, with 44 percent to Cuomo’s 34 percent. Sliwa followed with 11 percent.
Early voting is underway in New York City, and the ballot — which still includes candidates, like incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who have suspended their campaigns — cannot be altered. But the Manhattan Institute survey still asks voters about hypothetical head-to-head matchups.
Between just Mamdani and Cuomo, the gap narrows but Mamdani maintains his edge: 44 percent to 40 percent. In a hypothetical matchup with Sliwa, Mamdani leads, 47 percent to 33 percent.
Mamdani has focused his campaign on affordability, proposing programs such as free buses, which he says would be paid for by increasing taxes on the wealthiest New Yorkers and raising the corporate tax rate. He has also focused on crime prevention, saying the city has relied on police “to deal with the failures of our social safety net.”
Despite Mamdani’s commanding lead in the new poll, New York City residents are less convinced by some of his practical proposals.
A majority of respondents in the poll oppose “making all New York City buses fare-free.”
Asked to select the statement closest to their view, 58 percent agree, “Making buses free for everyone sounds nice, but it would make things worse in practice. It would turn buses into rolling shelters for homeless people and drug addicts, invite more crime and antisocial behavior, and leave even less money to fix slow, unreliable service.”
A third of respondents, meanwhile, select the following statement: “Bus service should be fast, fare-free, and universally accessible. Eliminating fares would make public transit more affordable and efficient for working New Yorkers while reducing conflicts between riders and operators.”
Asked about fare evasion on subways, 60 percent of respondents say allowing the practice to “go unchecked invites more crime and freeloading,” while enforcing payment helps “maintain order and safety.”
Only 30 percent say fare evasion is “mostly harmless and should not be policed aggressively” and that enforcement “criminalizes poverty.”
New Yorkers are more inclined to support raising the corporate tax rate on businesses at the state level “in order to pay for new social programs in New York City”: 53 percent support, while 39 percent oppose.
The survey was conducted Oct 22-26 and included 600 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
