In politics, as in life, moderation is key. But for Democrats, it is becoming existential.
As new analysis from the New York Times makes clear, if Democrats want any shot at winning the White House in 2028 or beyond, they must follow the moderates in the political middle lane.
The crux of the argument is simple: In a purple state or district, centrist candidates who reach out to swing voters tend to do better than those who only appeal to the most ideological parts of their base.
Indeed, the analysis found that in 2024, moderate Democrats running to the right of Kamala Harris outperformed the former vice president by 3 points, whereas non-moderates underperformed her by slightly more than 1 point.
This did not just emerge in the last election. In 2022, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Stacey Abrams simultaneously faced the same statewide electorate. Abrams, who ran a “bold progressive campaign” lost. Warnock, who “put a greater emphasis on courting the center,” won.
Nor is this confined to Georgia. All 17 Democrats who won races in states or districts that went for President Trump were all moderates. Critically, all 17 also made efforts to win over centrist swing voters by breaking with progressives and moving to the middle on issues like immigration, crime, and social issues.
Taken together, to win national elections, Democrats should sound more like Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) than Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).
To be clear, it is not just Democrats. Moderate Republicans have also tended to outperform Trump. That includes Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), who lost 2024 his senate bid but outperformed Trump by 9 points.
However, moderation is considerably more important for Democrats, who too often are focused on appealing to the progressive base, despite the unpopularity of progressive positions in most of the country.
Put another way, calling for open borders, defunding the police, or ending parents’ freedom to pick which schools their children attend may win in Ocasio-Cortez’s district, but are losing positions in a presidential campaign.
The first step is re-seizing the center on the issues people care about — the economy, immigration and safety. Democrats can do this by eschewing progressives’ extreme positions in favor of middle-of-the-road policies that meet the majority of voters where they are.
A Democratic agenda for a national election can — and should — advance strong borders without mass deportations of innocent migrants, tough penalties for criminals without militarizing our streets and protecting the social safety net without endless government spending.
On social issues, it should be possible to say gay and transgender individuals should be free from overt discrimination while also expressing discomfort at transgender athletes in women’s sports. And still, when California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said just that, he was pilloried by progressives for saying what 69 percent of Americans believe, according to Gallup.
A Democrat running on such an agenda would likely have a considerably better shot at the White House than a progressive in the mold of Ocasio-Cortez or Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).
Similarly, running on affordability is important, but when the far-left veers into socialism, Democrats lose the majority of Americans who prefer capitalism (59 percent).
As important as it is for Democrats to adopt more centrist policies, it’s just as important to rebut those who say the recipe for winning is moving even further to the left.
Pointing to the successes of New York City mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani (D) or the growing popularity of Ocasio-Cortez misses the mark. The entire country does not resemble California or New York City, and battleground states even less so. Even where progressives have been successful, they’ve built a coalition that is overwhelmingly white and college educated, as the Times and Pew Research point out.
That coalition is in no way representative of the national electorate. It also underscores a key danger: refusing to return to the center will further alienate the working class voters Democrats need in order to win a national election.
That being said, this is not to say that all of Democrats’ problems can be pinned on progressives. They do win in very liberal areas, especially at the local level.
Further, mainstream Democrats have allowed progressives to become as influential as they currently are. If more voted in Democratic primaries, candidates would be forced to appeal to the center.
Nevertheless, the data is clear: If the goal is winning the White House, moderates must lead the way. Fortunately, Democrats have been here before, and came up with a roadmap.
Former President Bill Clinton was able to end a decade of Republican dominance with an agenda that veered left of center on the economy and radically centrist on social and foreign policy issues.
That is what the party must do today, lest they resign themselves to minority party status for another decade or more.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”
