Almond, oat, coconut, and soy milks are only a fraction of the dozens of alternative milk options lining grocery store aisles and cluttering the countertops of coffee shops. If you can make milk out of it, there’s a good chance, you can find of a carton of it in a Whole Foods.
That nondairy milk boom really exploded in the 2010’s, which saw skyrocketing sales for brands like Almond Breeze and Oatly. There was even a great oat milk shortage of 2018.
But nearly a decade later, that may be waning. The rise of social media tradwives, skyrocketing grocery prices, and a backlash against seed oils have veered consumers away from alternative milk choices and seemingly back to cows.
According to Agricultural Marketing Service data, dairy milk is on the rise again with whole milk sales seeing a 1.6% increase from 2023 to 2024, and organic milk seeing a nearly 7% increase in sales. Plant-based milks, though, experienced a 4.4% decrease in sales in that same time period.
Dairy milks have long been a bigger market than plant-based options—U.S. milk production grew to $59.2 billion in 2022, while alternative milks are just under $6 billion market. But that recent drop in plant-based milk sales marked the first decline for the alt-milk industry in years. With this new growth in the dairy sector, the gap between animal and plant-based milks is widening, and alternative milks may struggle to keep up.
Looking at the alternative milk space, options such as almond and oat are among some of the most popular choices for consumers, with almond milk holding the top spot since 2013, and its sales alone accounting for over 50% of all alt-milk sales. Oat milk holds the trophy for second-most popular nondairy milk choice, since its popularity skyrocketed in 2020.
But specific brands may be struggling in an increasingly oversaturated market. Oatly was once the top-performing brand that couldn’t keep its greyish-blue cartons on grocery store shelves, but recently it has been trending in the opposite direction. At it’s lowest, the company’s stock in U.S. markets was 98% below what their initial public offering was in 2021. Today Oatly is trading at $12.26 per share. In the first quarter of 2025, Oatly saw a 10.6% decrease in North American revenue compared to the first quarter of 2024.
Protein, seed oils, and concerns about processed foods
At the start of the alt-milk “revolution,” and to this day, nondairy milk brands position themselves as healthier than cow’s milk. Brands like Almond Breeze say that their almond milk has 50% more calcium than dairy milk (300 milligrams in a cup of cow’s milk versus 450 in a cup of Almond Breeze). Oatly says its levels of calcium, vitamin D, and riboflavin nearly mirror that of cow’s milk (levels are within a gram or two of each other).
But consumer’s health obsessions are changing: they care less about their daily calcium intake and more about protein. The phenomenon of putting high-protein labels on any and all food and drink products has swept the internet into a health frenzy.
Misleading claims about the nutrition on TikTok have also taken a toll: In one representative video, a self-identifying nutritionist who posts high-protein recipes, listed all the reasons she doesn’t drink oat milk for her gut health, including claiming that inflammation from ingredients like canola oil and sugar spikes due to amylase, an enzyme used to break down the oat’s starches into sugars that aid in achieving a creamy texture. Instead, she opts for coconut or other alt-milk types that have no “filler oils” like canola and sunflower. Others on the platform cite, without much evidence, skin concerns and blood sugar spikes, as reasons they’ve gone back to dairy from plant-based options.
Critics call seed oils “toxic,” and according to the Cleveland Clinic, these oils can contribute to some inflammation. But the real concern, experts say, is the fact that seed oils are mostly used in processed and ultra-processed foods, like packaged snacks and candy. In moderation, and when not heated at high temperatures, seed oils can be a part of a healthy diet.
Oatly’s products specifically use rapeseed oil, also known as canola oil, in varying levels for “texture purposes.” The oil, when mixed with the oats, lends itself to a creamy texture, and, in Oatly’s Barista edition, a better froth.
The company even defends its “processed” nature, stating the “catchall term” doesn’t take into account that some products need to be processed to exist at all. After all, you can’t “milk oats in your hands.” Other popularly ultra-processed foods include tofu, breakfast cereals, and cheeses.
Still, the stigma surrounding over-processed and oil-filled products has spread to every corner of the internet. And this has started to prove as a major advantage for cows milk companies, particularly organic ones. Rick Simington, chief commercial officer of Organic Valley, a farmer-owned milk cooperative producing organic milk, says these trends have allowed for dairy products to “shed the demonized tone from the 2000s”.
“[Consumers] want to know where their product comes from, the benefits, and that there are clean ingredients,” Simington said. “Those three things together are really what’s allowing us to unleash our growth as well as our execution.”
But alt milks aren’t going away completely
Despite these challenges, the nondairy industry is still expected to continue to grow. Research firm Mordor Intelligence says the plant milk industry is expected to grow 12.33% a year over the next five years, to a more than $10 billion market. Over the same time period, the U.S. dairy milk market is expected to grow by 3.5% a year.
Even with dairy growing at a lower percentage rate, nondairy alternatives still have a lot of ground to cover if they’re going to catch up. Some of the newer and trending alt-milk products include pistachio, a nut that is notably having its moment. Brands like Táche claim to use zero added oils and be lower in sugars, calories, and carbs than Oatly. Hemp milk is also reportedly making headway as the fastest growing alt-milk option, with a growth projection on 14% over the next four years.
Generally speaking, plant-based milk choices are still considered better for the environment because they use less water and land, and produce less carbon emissions. They also appeal to those looking to avoid the hormones added to cow’s milk, due to a proposed link to increased cancer risks. And some just say that cow’s milk is for calves and not humans.
And though dairy milks that are whole, organic, and lactose-free are doing well in current markets, non- and lower-fat milks such as skim and 1% have all fallen in consumption. Each have steadily declined since their peaks in the late 1990s, with skim milk falling more than 75% in sales from 1998 to 2024, and 1% milk declining more than 50%.
In response to its recent dip in revenue and the rise in dairy-milk sales, Oatly’s North American President, Helge Weitz, says he isn’t concerned. He says new Oatly offerings are selling well, and that the brand is finding new ways to reach American consumers.
“Our latest creative campaign shed light on a recent study suggesting that five times more people—over 50 million Americans—might prefer Oatly in their coffee over cow’s milk,” Weitz said. “They just haven’t tried it yet.”
