Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is moving full speed ahead toward a planned vote this week on his chamber’s version of President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” despite pushback from GOP colleagues and serious doubts about his prospects.
Republicans say Thune and other Senate GOP leaders have told them the bill is on track for a vote before the July 4 recess in the face of misgivings from colleagues about the impact on Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and renewable energy projects across the country.
Thune is also coming under strong pressure from a trio of conservatives led by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) to cut significantly more from the budget.
Fiscal hawks including Sens. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) want to slash the federal share of Medicaid spending in states that expanded the program under the Affordable Care Act and to speed up the phaseout of renewable energy tax breaks.
The cross-cutting criticisms from different parts of Thune’s conference, combined with the tight timetable, has many observers doubting the Senate will get to the promised vote this week.
“I think it’s highly unlikely at this point that we vote on this thing by July 4. I think there is too much work to do. Too many people have to many ideas to come to the finish line to this process. I don’t see a way to hold a vote that gets 51 before the Fourth of July,” a Senate GOP aide told The Hill.
Senate Republicans crossed an important hurdle Saturday when they received a report from Joint Committee on Taxation scoring the extension of 26 provisions of the expiring 2017 Trump tax cuts as a continuation of “current policy” that should not be counting as adding to future deficits.
If the score survives review by the Senate parliamentarian, it would allow Republicans to make Trump’s 2017 marginal tax cuts permanent.
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), the ranking member of the Budget Committee, accused Republicans of using a “budget gimmick” and “smoke and mirrors” to obscure what he said would be $4 trillion in new debt created by extending the 2017 tax provisions.
Senate Republicans and Democratic aides were scheduled to present arguments to the parliamentarian over the weekend on the portion of the bill that covers the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, new tax relief, renewable energy tax credits and Medicaid cuts.
Democrats scored a victory Sunday when Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough ruled against a provision tucked into the bill by House Republicans that would severely limit the ability of courts to find Trump administration officials in contempt for failing to comply with injunctions or other court orders.
The language would have required a plaintiff seeking an emergency court order or preliminary injunction against the administration to pay a costly bond up front, limiting the scope of legal action against Trump’s executive actions.
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) hailed the ruling Sunday, asserting the language would have let Trump “ignore court orders with impunity” if it became law.
Democrats have had success knocking several other key provisions out of the bill, such as a proposal to cut funding for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which would have eliminated the agency Democrats set up in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.
Democrats also got the parliamentarian to rule against language cutting pay and benefits at the Federal Reserve and eliminating the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board.
Over the weekend, changes to the SNAP program designed to make states pay for more costs were also ruled out, a decision that could actually help the bill with centrist GOP senators like Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine.
Another wildcard is opposition from House Republicans from New York, New Jersey and California over language in the Senate bill to permanently set the cap at state and local tax (SALT) deductions at $10,000.
House GOP lawmakers in the SALT caucus say the Senate’s disdain for a deal they struck with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to raise the cap to $40,000 is a deal-breaker.
Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) told reporters last week that many items in the bill remain under discussion.
He said that Senate Republican leaders want to negotiate a deal on the SALT cap with House Republicans before the legislation comes to the floor so they can be assured that whatever passes the Senate could also pass the House.
Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) said Friday that the bill appears on track to “get accomplished next week.”
“Everybody should become prepared to get the job done,” he said.
He said that Senate GOP negotiators “are working through the rural hospital issues” and have a “goal to make sure that those issues are addressed.”
But a Senate GOP source familiar with the talks to resolve the Medicaid issue said they’re making slow progress.
“They know that this is a problem and it’s a live wire,” the source said of the impasse over Medicaid funding cuts.
Collins says she wants to make “many changes” to the bill and has floated the idea of creating a health-care-provider relief fund to help rural hospitals, nursing homes and community health centers that would be affected by funding cuts.
Even so, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) has raised concern about requiring lower-income Americans to pay higher copays for medical treatments and Murkowski has warned that stricter work and eligibility requirements will be difficult to implement in Alaska.
Republican senators and aides are expressing strong skepticism that Thune will be able to round up the 50 votes he needs to pass the bill by the end of this week.
Senate Republicans control a 53-seat majority and can afford only three defections and still pass the bill as Vice President JD Vance would cast a tie-breaking vote.
Johnson, the Wisconsin fiscal hawk, told reporters this week there’s “no way” the Senate bill gets done by July 4.
He said that he, Scott and Lee are willing to hold up the bill into they get concessions on bigger spending cuts.
Johnson wants Thune to commit to moving a second package of spending cuts using the budget reconciliation process before the 2026 midterm elections. And he is demanding a “forcing mechanism” to force such a bill to the floor.
One proposal would be to split up the $5 trillion debt-limit increase into two smaller expansions of borrowing authority to force GOP lawmakers to debate another round of spending cuts next year.
“What’s going to force us to come back and do this again?” Johnson said.
“They’re starting to talk about it,” referring to the latest talks with Thune about additional deficit reduction.
Johnson said Thune “at this point” needs his vote because he hasn’t locked down the votes of senators concerned about Medicaid cuts, such as Collins, Hawley and Murkowski.
“This is too soon,” he said of a vote on the bill next week. “The ball’s been in the Senate’s court for two weeks… . We need time to look at this.”
