Democrats across the country were victorious Tuesday night, winning key elections that took the party out of its year-long hiatus and back onto the political playing field. Indeed, after being consigned to largely symbolic “resistance,” they were able to score points against the steamroller that has been President Trump and the Republican Party.
Now, after wins in Virginia, New Jersey and California, overarching questions for Democrats remain.
Specifically, did Democrats find a new roadmap for sustained success? Or were their off-year election victories — in the blue states of Virginia and New Jersey — due more to discontent towards Trump than anything Democrats had to offer?
To be sure, this is not to take anything away from those Democrats who won.
Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) won Virginia’s gubernatorial race with the largest margin of victory for a Democrat in more than 60 years, outperforming former Govs. Ralph Northam (D) and Terry McAuliffe (D), as well as former Vice President Kamala Harris, with critical suburban voters.
Similarly, in New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) “dominated” areas with large numbers of Black and Hispanic voters, reversing gains Trump had made with these groups in 2024.
In Passaic County, a Democratic-leaning county with a large Hispanic population, Sherrill won by 15 points just one year after Trump had flipped the county. Across the Garden State, Sherrill’s 13 point margin of victory was nearly triple that of Harris.
Finally, after initial resistance, California voters easily passed Proposition 50, the state’s redistricting ballot measure, by an overwhelming two-to-one ratio.
So will the factors that propelled Democrats to victories this year carry over into the midterms and perhaps the 2028 elections?
First, although these elections are often considered bellwethers, they must be seen in context. Not only were Democrats expected to win — even if the size of their victories was surprising — but historically, off-year elections tend to benefit the party out of power, whose voters are often more motivated.
Put another way, as Karl Rove noted in the Wall Street Journal, “Republicans were happy … and stayed home. … Democrats weren’t and turned out.”
Independents also made their frustration known. In Virginia and New Jersey, Spanberger and Sherrill won 59 and 56 percent of independents, respectively.
To that end, Tuesday’s elections underscore critical facts for both parties going forward.
For Democrats, Trump remains their best but often only campaign tool. While Republicans usually underperform without Trump on the ballot, Democrats have historically been successful in turning elections into referenda about Trump.
Majorities in California (59 percent), Virginia (54 percent) and New Jersey (53 percent) said that Trump was a factor in their vote, according to CBS polling.
Exit polls show Trump’s approval rating at least 15 points underwater in all three states, indicating a receptive audience for anti-Trump messaging. Trump and Republicans need to understand that voters do not believe they have achieved what they were elected to do — specifically on the economy and lowering the cost of living.
With that in mind, Trump’s messaging so far on affordability has mirrored what sunk former President Joe Biden. Instead of explaining how his policies will lower costs, Trump declares inflation “dead” or “fake news.” He is essentially telling voters not to believe what they are personally experiencing — exactly like “Bidenomics.”
Likewise, when Trump routinely touts high tariff revenues, he seemingly forgets that Americans are the ones shouldering that burden, and that nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of Americans expect prices to continue rising, according to CBS News.
The Republican Party will have to recommit to its own “affordability agenda” and emphasize pro-growth policies. Otherwise, Democrats will continue scoring points on the economy.
At the same time, while Democrats should be happy about last Tuesday, they are not out of the woods. Americans may be angry with Trump’s handling of the economy — he has just 38 percent approval on the issue according to the CBS poll — but just 28 percent of Americans think Democrats would be better.
Trump’s political director acknowledged the need for a course correction, telling Politico that Trump will focus more on affordability going forward. If Democrats don’t have their own, competing economic agenda, their gains will be short-lived.
Additionally, Tuesday did little to solve Democrats’ intraparty ideological struggle. The victory of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani (D) in New York City may actually exacerbate the conflict between moderates like Spanberger and Sherrill and the party’s left wing.
Fair or not, the entire Democratic Party will be forced to answer for Mamdani’s policies, especially if they contribute to an erosion of New York City’s economy and quality of life, saying nothing of Mamdani’s open courting of antisemites.
Ultimately, the full implications of Tuesday’s elections remain to be seen. Whether or not these are the first indications of a resurgent Democratic Party depends on the party’s ability to unify around a moderate, compelling agenda that goes beyond “we are not Donald Trump.”
And for Republicans, they would be wise to stop declaring inflation dead, given that it isn’t. Their best bet is to return to the pro-growth, cost-lowering policies that contributed to their 2024 sweep.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”
