Nonfarm payrolls for March beat estimates with 228,000 jobs added, according to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, versus the estimate of 140,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, a three-year high, from 4.1%. Employers added 117,000 in February, which was revised from 151,000.
Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% in March, aligning with both the consensus estimate and the rise observed in February. However, on a year-over-year basis, wage growth decelerated to 3.8%, down from 4.0% in February and falling short of the expected 4.0%.
Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate rose slightly to 62.5%, up 0.1 percentage point from February’s 62.4%.
Federal employment took another hit in March, shedding 4,000 workers. This decline comes on the heels of an even steeper drop in February, when 11,000 positions vanished. However, these numbers might not reveal the full extent of the job cuts still rippling through the federal workforce.
Economists predicted a decline of 10,000 to 15,000 federal jobs in March, yet the Bureau of Labor Statistics clarified on Friday that employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are still counted as employed.
The employment data, collected before the Trump administration’s latest tariff increases, still reveal how employers reacted to earlier tariffs imposed on China, Canada, and Mexico, alongside federal layoffs and spending cuts.
Considering the current labor market conditions and persistent inflation above 2%, the Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates at their May meeting.
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