Organisations like the Smithsonian Institution via their Global Volcanism Program, the US Geological Survey and even NASA have conducted various studies on the apparent increase in volcanic activity over the past 200 or so years.
Real vs Apparent trends
The data below shows an increase in volcanic activity; however, according to the Smithsonian Institution, the real trends might be overshadowed by the fact that the impact of the eruptions is greater (still not a good thing) and less likely to escape the scrutiny of these very institutions, which study the trends and publish this data. It is also important to note that the overall improvement in communication systems allows the faster spread of information regarding eruptions. Thus, there are lower chances of an eruption getting missed by the authorities and agencies.
This is quite similar to other prevalent debates, like ‘are mental health issues increasing, or are we just diagnosing them better?’
Climate Change and Deglaciation
It is important to look at this issue from another angle as well. What do the environmental sciences have to say about this?
According to geologists, volcanoes erupt due to the accumulation of magma under the earth’s surface and gases that build up pressure until they finally burst and erupt, usually out of an already existing opening (like volcanoes). The eruptions can be explosive or not, depending on the consistency of the magma. If it is thin, the lava flows out in streams, which is decidedly less dangerous as it gives people time to get out of the way. If the magma is thick, it will result in explosions (think Pompeii due to the eruption of Mount Vesuvius).
Eruptions have also taken place in the form of cracks on the Earth’s surface. Earthquakes can also cause fissures in the ground, which leads to the rise of magma towards the surface, especially small but frequent earthquakes with multiple aftershocks. This magma may not erupt but instead solidify under the surface. Especially in Iceland, which has seen increased activity in the past few years.
These scientists suggest that the increase in the number and intensity of volcanic activity is mainly caused by climate change. Some people scoff at this suggestion because not everything is blamed on climate change nowadays. However, this reasoning is very valid.
Magma is stored, so to speak, in a magma chamber beneath the Earth’s surface. Due to it being less dense, it rises to the surface (Archimedes’s law of Buoyancy: Physics 101). Changes occurring on the surface, like the increased melting of glaciers due to climate change, result in changes in the pressure, which causes the magma to rise to the surface quickly, prompting more violent and increased frequency of eruptions.
Active Volcanoes Around the World
To quote the example of Iceland again, specifically Reykjanes, which has seen continuing eruption rates almost 50 times higher than what it used to be over the past 10,000 years due to deglaciation that has taken place. Continuing does not mean daily activity, however. It just means that the volcano is active and will erupt again in the near future. It is typical of Iceland to have magma flows instead of explosions, so it is likely that there won’t be significant damage.
Volcanic activity can include expulsions of ash into the atmosphere and onto nearby areas, like eruptions from Mount Etna.
Other active volcanoes around the world include Kirishimayama in Japan, Karymsky and Klyuchevskoy in Russia, Raung and Lewotolok in Indonesia and Kilauea and Ahyi in the United States.
The Ring of Fire is a string of active volcanoes around the Pacific Ocean. It is not exactly a ring but more of a horseshoe shape. It contains 75% of the world’s active volcanoes. Recent seismic activity around the ring has put many volcanoes like Mount Fuji into a critical state, which means they may erupt any day. Fuji is more susceptible to earthquakes due to its location, where three major tectonic plates interact.
Most of the other active volcanoes in the Ring of Fire are on the western edge. Mount Ruapehu is one of the most active volcanoes, with minor eruptions almost every year and major ones every 50 years.
Warning Systems
Now that we have accepted that there is a rise in activity, or at least, in harmful volcanic activity, there comes the question of what we can do in terms of forecasting and warnings.
Most countries with active volcanoes have their own systems in place for early warnings. The NVEWS operates in the United States, partnering with USGS and the Volcano Hazards Program. In Japan, the Meteorological Agency has a Volcanic Alert System.
Fibre sensing technologies, satellite imagery and ground-based monitoring systems are used in the warning systems. In 2024, Caltech developed a technology derived from Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), which could give warnings up to 30 minutes before eruptions.
Conclusion
As eruptions don’t take place in a definite pattern, it is hard to say whether there has been a definitive increase in activity or not, especially since the data in the previous graph shows noticeable valleys and peaks.
However, we can conclude, there is a correlation with wars and other man-made disasters.
Even if volcanic activity has not increased in number, it has increased in magnitude, resulting in a larger number of casualties in recent years, which is a cause for concern, especially if it is linked to climate change, which is spiralling faster than we can control.
Written by – Shamonnita Banerjee
Edited by – Aditi Bhuinyan
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