What’s the matter with Ohio? Trump tariffs are a loser even in Red states.

Donald Trump largely got a second chance at the presidency due to a deep dissatisfaction with the economy. It turns out his tariff policy has not eased fears and in fact may be fueling deeper anxieties among voters. 

It is one of the few issues where a significant number of Republican voters are willing to break with the president. Notably, independent voters are also spooked by tariff uncertainty.

While public opinion polling in the aggregate has illustrated these trends, few polls have probed how Red State voters are reacting to Trump’s tariff policies. Once a prized bellwether state, Ohio has now voted solidly Republican in the last three elections, including a double-digit margin of victory for Trump in 2024. 

Yet, our poll of Buckeye voters finds Trump is currently underwater and the tariffs are a major reason why.

A majority of Ohio voters (51 percent) believe the Trump tariff policies will personally hurt them and just 1 in 4 think his tariff policies will benefit them. About half think the tariffs will hurt the United States (49 percent), while 38 percent think the country will benefit from them. 

This is somewhat vexing as Trump had long indicated he would engage in an aggressive tariff policy in his second term. Perhaps the uneven rollout and increased media attention to the potential effects of tariffs on the American consumer could be driving the discontent.

Although Trump enjoys almost universal support among Republicans in our poll on most issues, there is some melt when it comes to the tariffs. Just 47 percent of Republicans think the tariffs will personally help them, and less than 1 in 5 think the tariffs will personally hurt them. Independents also provide some caution, as a majority (53 percent) think they will personally be hurt by Trump’s tariff policies.

The poll finds some rare bipartisan agreement in who respondents think will benefit most from the tariff policies.  

Respondents overwhelmingly think the tariffs will benefit the wealthy (66 percent) and large corporations (60 percent). Majorities of both Democrats (75 percent) and Republicans (56 percent) believe the wealthy will benefit from the tariff policies. Seventy-two percent of independents also believe the wealthy will benefit.

When it comes to large corporations, however, it is Republicans who are most likely to agree that these entities would likely benefit from the Trump tariff policies, with 67 percent in agreement, compared to 55 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of Independents.

Large majorities of all respondents believe that small businesses (59 percent), the middle class (58 percent), the working class (58 percent), labor unions (58 percent) and the United States automobile industry (54 percent) do not stand to benefit from the tariffs. 

Although Trump has claimed that his tariff policies would benefit these groups, thus far, most people appear to be skeptical. This is a message Democrats will likely amplify leading up to next year’s midterm elections.

As might be expected, the largest amount of agreement among all respondents is that foreign governments would not benefit from the tariffs (75 percent). 

Overall, we find Trump’s approval in Ohio is underwater with 47 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving of his job in office. Keep in mind that this poll is of voters who indicated they supported Trump by a 10-point margin, largely reflecting the actual outcome of the 2024 election in the state. 

Moreover, this is a 7-point slide in favorability from when we polled Ohio voters in February of this year. Nationally, Trump’s approval is at minus 4, with 46 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval. 

The frenzied pace of the first few months of the second Trump presidency has created some unease among many voters as well. Not surprisingly, nearly 9 in 10 Democrats feel more anxious (86 percent). More broadly, majorities of non-whites (59 percent), those 18-44 (53 percent) and women (50 percent), personally feel more anxious with Trump as president. 

While 24 percent of independents are less anxious with Trump as president, 43 percent are more anxious with him as president. Notably, Trump has changed course on the implementation of his tariffs on several occasions already, likely fueling more uncertainty among voters.

Citizens across the country and in red states in particular have conveyed a strong distrust in government and an impulse for change. The advantages Republicans have in the House and Senate may be in jeopardy, given that the president’s party has an average midterm loss of 28 seats in the House and 4 seats in the Senate from 1934-2018. In 2022, Republicans gained just 8 seats in the House and lost one seat in the Senate. 

If public opinion continues in this direction, especially in red states, some Republicans will be faced with difficult choices on how closely they align themselves with Trump and his tariff agenda.

Robert Alexander is a professor of political science at Bowling Green State University.