ALBANY, New York — New York Republicans have a closing argument for voters unhappy with the cost of living: Blame the incumbent Democrats who run Albany.
President Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity in his native state — made worse by high gas prices and a Canadian tariff war — has created a nightmare environment for the GOP in this deep blue state. Yet Republican candidates, strategists and former officeholders believe their party can leverage New Yorkers’ vexation with high taxes, housing costs and skyrocketing utility bills to offset the midterm agony their party is poised to suffer on Tuesday.
Gubernatorial nominee Bruce Blakeman’s final TV ad warns voters that Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s reelection will result in a tax hike at the behest of her political ally, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. On the trail, he blasts the sharp increase in energy costs and pledges to reverse the state’s 12-year-old ban on natural gas drilling along the Pennsylvania border. And he’s pledging to bolster public safety by repealing a package of criminal justice law changes.
Republicans hope those attacks will offset Democrats’ efforts to make the election a referendum on Trump. GOP candidates running in down-ballot House and state legislative contests have used Hochul as a foil — a reflection of her middling poll numbers for much of the year.
Rep. Mike Lawler, running in a district Trump lost by one point two years ago, has gleefully tied Democrats to Hochul.
“If Democrats in New York complain about affordability, we have the highest state taxes in the country, income and property taxes. We have chronically poor educational performance. We have a housing market that’s stultified,” said former Rep. John Faso, a Republican who ran for governor in 2006. “Since the Democrats have been running New York state at the statewide level for many years — it’s hard to blame all of that on Donald Trump.”
Hochul’s campaign insists New York voters will positively affirm her five years in office.
“From the beginning, this race has been about records: Governor Hochul has put money back in New Yorkers’ pockets, invested $4 billion in public safety, and fought back against Trump’s attacks – all Bruce Blakeman has done is raise taxes, stick his neck out for ICE, and defend everything Trump does,” Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki said in a statement. “New Yorkers don’t want that and they never have.”
The rhetoric reflects a broader bet about voters’ collective mood in an intensely disruptive political era and is a test of whether increasingly nationalized elections can still hinge on local concerns. Skyrocketing gas and grocery costs, along with the perception among younger people that their generation will not be as financially secure as their parents, has fueled insurgent primary candidates’ successful bids against their establishment foes.
New York Republicans are making this anti-incumbent case eight years after Democrats won the state Senate, giving them control of both legislative chambers and the governor’s office. GOP officials contend that Democratic control in Albany has made the Empire State less safe and more expensive. They hope the argument will appeal to swing voters, including the growing number of people who aren’t enrolled in a party, and disaffected Democrats concerned with the party’s leftward lurch — especially after Mamdani’s election.
The stakes for Republicans extend beyond Blakeman’s longshot bid for governor. The GOP is trying to retain control of the closely divided House, and New York is home to several swing districts.
Republicans are fretting about the political fate of Lawler, who occupies one of those swing seats. They are also nervously watching the outcome of a race for a deep red House seat being vacated by Rep. Elise Stefanik — an election that was never expected to be competitive.
Polls have shown their entire statewide ticket, which is led by Blakeman and includes state attorney general and comptroller candidates, down by double digits against the incumbent Democrats. One survey also showed the limits of both candidates’ affordability pitches: 35% of likely voters said neither would make life more affordable for average New Yorkers, compared with 30% who chose Hochul and 27% who chose Blakeman.
Voters across the country are enraged by the cost of living, and Hochul’s allies expect they will take it out on Trump.
“When you have a level of anger at the government or life, sometimes that spills out on people who aren’t to blame,” said Democratic former New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn. “But in New York as it relates to Gov. Hochul, that misplaced anger is easily dispelled when voters are reminded of everything she’s gotten done.”
Some Republicans acknowledge that voters may be in a sour enough mood to reject GOP incumbents like Lawler along with Democrats. That’s added another layer of uncertainty for a party that’s desperate to regain statewide relevance.
“This is the craziest and weirdest election cycle that I’ve ever seen,” said Chris Tague, a state lawmaker and local GOP party chair. “It’s been very tough to gauge what’s going to happen on Tuesday night.”
Republicans are nevertheless trying to find ways of returning to power by casting this midterm fight as a change election.
GOP state attorney general candidate Saritha Komatireddy, running against two-term Democrat Letitia James, has framed her race entirely around public safety as her campaign makes an overt appeal to voters across the political spectrum concerned with crime.
“New Yorkers are tired of the way things are going,” Komatireddy said. “They understand things are going in the wrong direction. They want change.”
The state’s notoriety for high taxes has also given Republicans ammunition.
Blakeman has warned that Hochul’s second term will include the tax hikes being sought by Mamdani, her democratic socialist ally in City Hall. The mayor and his political base — which Hochul needs to run up the score in the five boroughs — are expected to pressure the governor next year to raise income tax rates on rich people and large corporations. Hochul has insisted Mamdani’s campaigning for her is not linked to a promise to back an increase.
In one of his final TV spots, Blakeman’s campaign contends Hochul is to blame for voters’ affordability woes.
“Kathy Hochul made New York unaffordable — taxing paychecks, toll and fare hikes. The nation’s highest taxes,” the ad’s narrator says.
While Hochul has not definitively ruled out a tax increase next year, the Republican nominee has proposed eliminating taxes for most New Yorkers — though he has not spelled out the details.
A party that in the 1990s simultaneously held the governor’s mansion, New York City Hall and a U.S. Senate seat has witnessed its power rapidly erode this century. A New York Republican last won a statewide race in 2002, when George Pataki secured a third term. Trump’s first midterm in 2018 saw the final toehold of GOP power erased when the party lost the state Senate.
Republicans have seen their statewide enrollment steadily dwindle as well, with more voters now registered as independents. Redoubts of Republican power are confined to some upstate counties and on bellwether Long Island, where Blakeman is a top official.
Four years ago, then-Rep. Lee Zeldin made it within 6 points of unseating Hochul — the closest a Republican has come in a gubernatorial election since the GOP’s losing streak began in 2006.
Even that race highlighted the difficulty of a GOP victory in New York. Hochul had taken office only a year earlier and was not as well known as her predecessor, Andrew Cuomo. Democratic President Joe Biden’s popularity was starting to wane. And Republicans benefitted from the deep pockets of cosmetics heir Ronald Lauder, who funded a super PAC to boost their nominee.
Zeldin still lost. And Hochul has used the race as an example of how her party can’t take anything for granted.
“We have major pockets of truly MAGA Republicans,” she told podcaster Ben Max recently. “It’s a much more purple state than people would think.”
Still, Democrats have enjoyed the trappings of incumbency that make it difficult for Republicans to break through as New York’s political establishment remains behind Hochul.
The governor, a powerhouse fundraiser, has handily outspent Blakeman on advertising by more than $10 million, according to data from the ad tracking firm AdImpact. New York’s deep-pocketed private sector — including business leaders who need a powerful governor on their side in Albany — have largely stuck with Hochul. Labor organizations that once endorsed incumbent Republicans like Pataki are firmly within her camp.
“They play a role in this,” said New York Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar. “They definitely play a role in keeping incumbents in.”
