As some of you might have heard, it wasn’t too long ago that SpaceX announced plans to launch its own US mobile carrier. And we’re not talking about launching an MVNO service like Google Fi either. SpaceX wants to become a true and proper, standalone carrier. Unsurprisingly, T-Mobile doesn’t seem particularly thrilled about it. In a post on LinkedIn, T-Mobile CTO John Saw pushes back against SpaceX and its plans.
T-Mobile pushes back against SpaceX becoming a mobile carrier
On the surface, it might seem that Saw’s post could simply be about trying to discourage the competition. But it’s less about T-Mobile pushing back against SpaceX and more about Saw laying out the potential hurdles that SpaceX might need to overcome. He also notes that it’s more than just about buying spectrum and magically becoming a mobile carrier.
Saw argues that owning spectrum is only a starting point. He notes that Starlink Mobile’s acquired holdings remain a fraction of T-Mobile’s. It also lags behind modern 5G-Advanced channel widths.
He also makes a point about physics. This includes how there could be massive path loss from satellites hundreds of kilometers away, as well as the challenges of penetrating indoor environments. This is especially important since this is where most mobile traffic occurs. Ultimately, he thinks that this would prevent space-based signals from matching terrestrial performance.
Also, while direct-to-cell technology is a valuable tool for extending coverage, Saw stresses that it cannot replace the dense capacity of a modern 5G network. Nor can it match the massive infrastructure investments made by other carriers over the decades. All this is to say is this is a monumental task that SpaceX is walking into.
Can SpaceX succeed?
That being said, if SpaceX is willing to put in the effort, there are several reasons why SpaceX could succeed.
For starters, land-based networks require the building of cell towers. And since carriers are less willing to invest in areas that aren’t as populated, it leaves large stretches of highways and rural areas unserviced. Those are the gaps that SpaceX’s satellites could fill.
SpaceX also has an advantage in that it can easily send up new satellites to upgrade network capacity and software. This is versus building cell towers, where carriers need to obtain land permits, pour concrete, and send technicians to cover thousands of miles worth of these towers.
This is all just hypothetical, though. Only time will tell if SpaceX’s efforts will bear fruit or if the three major US carriers will continue to dominate.
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