Democrats are feeling bullish about their chances of clinching both the Senate and governor’s races in Georgia next year after the party won a pair of special elections this week that were seen as potential bellwether races ahead of 2026.
Democrats flipped two seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission on Tuesday, marking the first time in nearly two decades that the party won a statewide constitutional office.
Republicans are brushing off the special election wins, saying local elections ultimately drove higher Democratic engagement. But Democrats believe the election results are giving the party a reason to feel optimistic about Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D-Ga.) reelection and their chance to flip the governor’s mansion.
“I think this shows the momentum that we have going into next year,” Democratic Party of Georgia Chair Charlie Bailey told reporters on Wednesday.
Democratic candidates Alicia Johnson and Peter Hubbard beat incumbents Tim Echols and Fitz Johnson for seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission on Tuesday, two under-the-radar special elections that would normally be considered sleepy races.
But the party framed the campaigns as a referendum on higher costs of living as well as the GOP-controlled commission, where Georgia Power customers saw six rate increases within two years. Affordability was a central theme in Democrats’ campaigns throughout the country on Tuesday.
The Georgia Public Service Commission and Georgia Power reached a deal earlier this year to freeze base rates between 2026 and 2028, though some argued that money approved for fuel and storm damage costs would still entail higher utility costs nonetheless, according to the Georgia Recorder.
“None of those public service commissioners happen to be Georgia Power customers,” Johnson told 11Alive News ahead of her election. “I, on the other hand, have been a Georgia Power customer for 52 years and so I understand what it’s like to get those rate increases. I pay the same bills that Georgia families are struggling with today.”
Democrats say the Tuesday night wins have buoyed the party as it prepares to protect Ossoff next year and flip the governor’s seat.
“We feel very bullish,” Democratic National Committee (DNC) chair Ken Martin said, when asked by The Hill during a video call with reporters about how the party was reading the special election results and what it could mean for the party in Georgia in top state races next year.
Democratic strategist Fred Hicks said that voter turnout in local races on Tuesday exceeded their expectations, saying that Public Service Commission races encouraged the higher numbers. He, too, noted that voters are unafraid to hold their party accountable when it comes to issues like the economy.
“When you run on something like that, you have to deliver,” said Democratic strategist Fred Hicks. “If you don’t, then voters are going to change their mind, change their direction, whether you’re Democrat or Republican.”
Hicks also noted that a string of Republican wins in the Public Service Commission races in the 1990s were some of the first signs of the party changing its fortunes back when Democrats controlled the Peach State.
That came to a head in 2002 when Lauren “Bubba” McDonald, who was initially elected as a Democrat and later reelected as a Republican, lost his reelection on the commission in addition to fellow Democrat commissioner Earleen Sizemore. That same year, Republicans Sonny Perdue and Saxby Chambliss won their races for governor and Senate respectively, defeating two Democratic incumbents.
The recent pair of elections, however, is raising questions over whether that might be a sign of Democrats’ fortunes changing in the state.
Campaigns, too, see Tuesday night’s elections as a promising sign, saying they’re focused on the same issues around affordability that Johnson and Hubbard were heading into Tuesday. Georgia gubernatorial candidate Jason Esteves (D) and Keisha Lance Bottoms’ campaign both emphasized the affordability issue in statements to The Hill.
It’s hard to compare voting electorates between off-year and midterm elections, particularly since more voters typically tune into midterm races compared to off-year ones.
Republicans have largely argued that Democrats saw a good night on Tuesday because municipal elections drove stronger Democratic turnout compared to Republicans, brushing off the idea they foreshadow elections for the party next year.
“Republicans didn’t have anything to counter that as far as anything to vote for, so I personally wouldn’t put too much stock in it,” said Republican strategist Jay Williams, whose firm briefly worked on the commissioner elections.
Brian Robinson, a Republican strategist who did media for Johnson’s campaign and is working on Attorney General Chris Carr’s (R) gubernatorial bid, chalked up the Tuesday night wins to a bad environment for Republicans.
“I think one thing that Tuesday reiterated to Georgians, a lesson they should already have known, is that in a bad environment, a Democrat can win statewide, and that a good Democrat candidate can beat a bad Republican candidate in a neutral environment,” he said.
Still, some Republicans expressed frustration that there was little voter engagement from the party. Patrick Parsons, a former chief of staff to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), said in a video posted on X that the only reason he knew to vote this week was because a friend had mentioned the elections to him.
He also argued that Republicans needed to offer legislative victories to the voters to give them a reason to come out and vote.
“You gotta deliver on what you said you would do, and that is clean up the crap that Joe Biden left this country. That is what we expect,” Parsons said in the video.
While some Democrats believe 2026 is shaping up to be much like 2018, where Democrats made inroads across the country capitalizing on anti-Trump sentiment and the issue of health care, those wins didn’t necessarily translate to wins across the board for the party.
That year, Democrat Stacey Abrams lost her first gubernatorial run to Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), albeit by a close margin.
“When you look at those [who] have been successful in Georgia from 2020 on — that is the difference: Do you speak effectively? Do you communicate effectively about the state and people’s personal economies, or are you more given to social, cultural issues and the national matters?” Hicks said.
“That’s the difference between … winning and losing in Georgia,” he added.
