Republican finger-pointing has begun in the wake of Democrats’ stunning success in Tuesday night’s elections.
President Trump was quick to distance himself from the results, blaming the shutdown and arguing his absence from the ballot played a part in the GOP failing to turn out voters.
But other Republicans were more circumspect, suggesting their party didn’t focus enough on issues that mattered most, like affordability, as they look to hold on to power in Congress in what is likely to be a tough political environment for them next year.
“We got our a–es handed to us,” said Ohio GOP gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in a video on the social platform X, arguing that Republicans need to focus more on affordability and less on identity politics in their messaging.
Vice President Vance echoed the need for Republicans to focus on affordability, calling it “the metric by which we’ll ultimately be judged in 2026 and beyond.”
While Democrats were favored to win in Tuesday’s elections, which mostly took place in blue-leaning states, the margins by which Democrats won have Republicans nervous.
Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger (D) overperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris in Virginia by roughly 10 points, while New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill (D) outperformed Harris by 7 points. Democrats also performed well in one red state election, flipping two seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission.
Republicans say the warning signs could not be clearer, calling the results “a wake-up call” ahead of 2026.
“It was a terrible night for Republicans. It’s not the death knell. It’s not a whole prediction of what’s going to happen a year from now,” said one Republican consultant. “I think it should be a real wake-up for the White House that they have to get their act together. “
Republican donor Dan Eberhart went even further, characterizing Tuesday night as “a nuclear disaster for the party of Lincoln.”
“My nightmare woke my nightmare up!” Eberhart added when asked if he expected Republicans to lose as much as they did.
Democrats in Virginia had the wind at their backs with Spanberger’s consistent lead throughout the cycle and historical trends working in their favor. A sitting president’s party tends to lose the Virginia governor’s race during the president’s first term, and Virginia Democrats tend to overperform when Trump is in office. Additionally, Republicans have laid blame on candidate quality, pointing specifically to gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears.
Some argue there was no excuse for state Attorney General-elect Jay Jones (D) to unseat state Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) following a scandal involving unearthed 2022 text messages from Jones in which he talked about shooting a former Republican state House Speaker.
“We were going to lose the [governor’s] race, but sheesh,” Eberhart said. “If we can’t beat Jay Jones, we need to go back to school.”
Others note that it was a near impossible task for Miyares to overcome Spanberger’s 15-point coattails that helped propel Jones to victory.
“The fact that Miyares got within 5 [points] is probably a testament to who he is as a candidate,” said Matt Beynon, a Republican consultant.
In New Jersey, preelection polls showed Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by roughly 5 points, but she ended up winning the race by 13 points. Many Republicans attributed Ciattarelli’s loss to the environment, arguing that he fell victim to Sherrill’s efforts to tie him to Trump.
“Last night in many ways was a repudiation of [Trump] and how voters that in many cases turned out and supported and put him in office just a year ago feel about the job he’s done and the direction of the country,” the Republican consultant said.
Other Republicans say the criticism of the party’s performance is overkill, noting that the major elections of the evening took place in blue-leaning states during an off-year election.
“The results of last night’s elections were expected and aren’t a canary in the coal mine for the midterms,” said Nick Iarossi, a Republican lobbyist.
Republican strategist Gregg Keller also said he was not surprised by the results or the margins.
“I always thought we were going to get smoked,” Keller said. “Believing otherwise was counterhistorical wish-casting.”
The off-year elections of Virginia and New Jersey are often not indicators of the following midterms. In 2021, Republicans saw major statewide victories under Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), and Ciattarelli came within 4 points of unseating New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D). Democrats then performed better than expected in the 2022 midterm election.
Comparisons have also been drawn between Republicans’ underperformance last night and Trump’s gains in Virginia and New Jersey in 2024, but some Republicans aren’t buying it.
“There’s no way to compare that election that had so much attention among the general electorate to an off-year election where voters just simply aren’t as tuned in,” said one national Republican operative.
One race they feel confident they can use to their advantage is New York City’s mayoral race, where self-identified democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani sailed to victory. Republicans, including President Trump, have already begun to paint the mayor-elect as a foil going into the midterms.
“He very clearly last night wanted to inject himself nationally into the discussion and he wasn’t this nice warm guy that he’s been portrayed as. He was an angry socialist,” Beynon said, referring to Mamdani’s victory night speech, in which he took a number of swipes at Trump.
Others note that the race is a loss for Trump at the end of the day, considering he endorsed former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in a last-minute attempt to hamper Mamdani.
“The president of the United States put his own political capital behind a guy that lost in that race,” the unnamed Republican consultant said.
