A number of high-profile Democrats, including former President Obama, are racing to shore up support for New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill amid signs the race is tightening even more than expected.
Sherrill has been single digits ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli in public polling, with one recent survey from Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill showing the two essentially tied.
Democrats are cautiously optimistic that she will pull off a win on Tuesday despite no political party successfully winning three consecutive terms in the governor’s mansion since 1961. But in a sign they’re not leaving anything to chance, Obama and Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) are set to stump for Sherrill this weekend.
“If the race comes down to party preference, that is a framework that should favor Democrats,” said Democratic strategist Henry de Koninck.
Democrats have a nearly 860,000 voter registration advantage over Republicans, de Koninck said. He added that the party out of power immediately following a presidential election usually sees a turnout advantage, which would also benefit Democrats.
The race to succeed term-limited New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is in its final stretch as Sherrill and Ciattarelli work to turn out their respective bases for the gubernatorial election on Tuesday.
Recent public polling has shown Sherrill leading Ciattarelli to varying degrees. The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll released on Thursday found the New Jersey congresswoman barely edging out Ciattarelli 49 percent to 48 percent, well within the margin of error.
A Suffolk University poll this week also had the race close, with Sherrill holding a 4-point lead over her Republican candidate, while polling released by Quinnipiac University and Fox News had her leading by between 7 and 9 points.
A Decision Desk HQ polling average of surveys had Sherrill at 50 percent, with Ciattarelli at 45 percent.
There are a few early signs giving Democrats reason to hope next week. One is Sherrill’s consistent leads over Ciattarelli in public polling, with a few public polls even showing Sherrill notching at least half the vote.
Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, said Democrats are also feeling good about the “early voting firewall” that they’re building.
Democrats had a roughly 221,000 raw vote edge on mail-in ballots as of Thursday, according to Michael Pruser, director of data science at DDHQ. Meanwhile, Pruser noted Democrats had an early in-person voting raw count edge of just under 2 percent, about 7,300 votes.
Pruser said in a post online that he expected to see Democrats to have a 240,000 mail-in vote edge by Election Day, while edging out Republicans when it comes to in-person voting by roughly 4.5 percent by Tuesday.
“The question is whether or not Republicans are doing enough this time to completely breach it or to partially breach it,” said Rasmussen, who previously served as press secretary for former Gov. Jim McGreevey (D).
“I think even among the most nervous of Democrats, there’s no question that Republicans have to have a very big Election Day in order to be able to overcome what could be as much as 250- or 275,000 vote-margin for Democrats at this point,” he added.
Democrats also see an advantage in a number of national issues that have come political talking points in the race, including the Trump administration’s decision to pause money for the Hudson River Tunnel Project, colloquially known as the Gateway; the prevalent raids carried out by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE); and social safety net program cuts from Republicans’ mega policy bill.
But her campaign notes that the messaging around Trump goes hand-in-hand with some of the most prominent issues in the election, affordability and the economy.
“Whether it’s [the] Gateway [tunnel] or the tariffs or cuts to Medicaid, the interplay between affordability and Trump is crucial, because everything that Trump is doing is driving up costs in New Jersey,” Sherrill campaign spokesman Sean Higgins said.
“It’s not only “being against Trump. It’s about standing up to Trump’s attacks on the economy and creating a different path forward in New Jersey, and that’s what Mikie’s message has been about,” he added.
But even Sherrill supporters concede it’s looking to be a tight race, and the party has brought out some of its most prominent surrogates like Obama, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D), former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Gallego to stump for her. They have also campaigned for Virginia gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger (D), who’s also up for election on Tuesday.
Ciattarelli has also seen some prominent conservatives campaigning for him as well, including former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who’s running for Ohio governor next year, and right-wing commentator Jack Posobiec.
Republicans believe they have the momentum on their side. Republican strategist Jeanette Hoffman noted recent endorsements from the Latino clergy group Confraternidad Latina de Pastores and the Lakewood Vaad, an influential Orthodox Jewish group that backed Murphy in 2021.
Hoffman was also skeptical that the anti-Trump message in the Garden State would resonate with voters.
“She’s been really running a federal campaign focused on Trump. But you know, anybody in New Jersey will tell you that property taxes, electric bills — these are all state-specific issues,” she said.
New Jersey state Sen. Michael Testa (R), a co-chair for the 2020 New Jersey Trump campaign and Ciattarelli surrogate, said the former GOP assemblyman “has a vision for the state of New Jersey” and argued that Democrats’ edge in mail-in voting at this point has decreased somewhat compared to how the party fared in 2021.
“Let’s face it, we know Republicans typically like to vote on Election Day,” Testa said. “This race is going to come down to how many Republicans and independents come out to vote for Jack Ciattarelli on Election Day.”
Passaic Mayor Hector Lora, who represents a majority Hispanic city that Trump won in November, noted Ciattarelli’s visible momentum in the race.
“He’s working hard, he’s everywhere. He’s willing to listen. He’s being open and receptive to all groups,” the mayor, who’s backing Sherrill.
Still, Lora said he believed the state was “leaning” toward the New Jersey congresswoman.
“I feel genuinely that New Jersey isn’t going right, but they do want us to come back to the center,” the mayor said.
Democrats for their part are making it clear they can’t take Tuesday’s election for granted.
“I always thought that was sort of the theory of the case, that this was going to be a tight race, that was going to be won on the margins,” Democratic strategist Mo Butler said.
“I think that’s what these polls have demonstrated,” he added.
